Reynolds American Inc: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis

By: FAST Graphs | Mon, Dec 17, 2012
Print Email

Before analyzing a company for investment, it's important to have a perspective on how well the business has performed. Because at the end of the day, if you are an investor, you are buying the business. The FAST Graphs™ presented with this article will focus first on the business behind the stock. The orange line on the graph plots earnings per share since 2001. A quick glance vividly reveals the historical operating record of the company.

This article will reveal the business prospects of Reynolds American Inc (RAI) through the lens of FAST Graphs - fundamentals analyzer software tool.

Earnings Determine Market Price: The following earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings. The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth™ Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.


Earnings & Price Correlated Fundamentals-at-a-Glance

A quick glance at the historical earnings and price correlated FAST Graphs™ on Reynolds American Inc shows a picture of in-value based upon the historical earnings growth rate of 9.1% and a current P/E of 14.6. Analysts are forecasting the earnings growth to continue at about 7%, and when you look at the forecasting graph below, the stock appears in-value (it's inside of the value corridor of the five orange lines - based on future growth).

Reynolds American Inc: Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal P/E Since 2001

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)


Performance Table Reynolds American Inc

The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the principles regarding the two components of total return: capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested.

When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 11.1% capital appreciation (green circle), long-term shareholders of Reynolds American Inc, assuming an initial investment of $1,000, would have received an additional $1381.41 in dividends (blue highlighting) that increased their total return from 11.1% to 14.2% per annum versus 2.1% in the S&P 500.

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)

The following graph plots the historical P/E ratio (the dark blue line) in conjunction with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as high as it has been since 2001.

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)

A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company's current P/S ratio relative to its historical P/S ratio. The current P/S ratio for Reynolds American Inc is 2.88 which is historically high.

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)


Looking to the Future

Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:

  1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company's earnings

  2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings

Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound and profitable performance.

The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.

The consensus of 14 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Reynolds American Inc's long-term earnings growth at 7% (orange circle). Reynolds American Inc has medium long-term debt at 30% of capital (red circle). Reynolds American Inc is currently trading at a P/E of 14.6, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 14.6. If the earnings materialize as forecast, based upon forecasted earnings growth of 7%, Reynolds American Inc's share price would be $61.05 at the end of 2018 (brown circle on EYE Chart), which would represent a 12.6% annual rate of total return which includes dividends paid (yellow highlighting).

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)


Earnings Yield Estimates

Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Reynolds American Inc to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds illustrates that Reynolds American Inc's expected earnings would be 5.5 (purple circle) times that of the 10-year T-bond interest (see EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)


Summary & Conclusions

This report presented essential "fundamentals at a glance" illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it's imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.

 


Disclosure: No position at the time of writing.

 


 

FAST Graphs

Author: FAST Graphs

F.A.S.T. Graphs™

F.A.S.T. Graphs™ is a powerful research tool providing "essential fundamentals at a glance" on over 17,000 symbols. F.A.S.T. Graphs™ empowers the user to research stocks deeper and faster by allowing them to exploit the undeniable relationship and functional correlation between long-term earnings growth and market price. Warren Buffett, the greatest capital allocator of all time, said; "there are only two things that investor needs to know; how to value a company and how to think about stock prices." With the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ at their disposal, users are able to perform both of these critical tasks... FAST.

F.A.S.T. is an acronym for Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool that takes all the hours of manual graphing of business fundamentals and reduces it to seconds, giving you critical information in an instant. With one glance you know a lot about the business you are graphing and its past, present and future value. F.A.S.T. Graphs™ should be the first step in every research project. Each graph is worth 1,000 words in describing a company's growth, consistency and valuation.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.

Copyright © 2011-2014 FAST Graphs

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/