Investing Wisely - COMCAST: Forecasts / Confirmations = Profitable Results!

By: Steve Bauer | Fri, Dec 21, 2012
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Making Money in the Stock Market is Really Quite Simple

It begins with Accurate Forecasting and Analytic Procedures, then it requires Well Honed Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion Conformations, and it ends with Profitable Results. (F / C = PR). This simple 1, 2, 3 formula has consistently produced annual profits for over 50 years.


Professor's F / C = PR --- > for My High Profile / Bellwether Companies

My most recent articles have been posted here in SafeHaven.com are: AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM.

My past two Quarterly - Articles for (CMCSA) can be found in my Archive, just click on Authors and you will be taken to the Home Page and - Steve Bauer. Remember, I rotate these Articles over a13 week / three-month - Quarterly period.


Professor's Quarterly Forecast for COMCAST -- Near/Short-term (one month to three months)

The Company has been Ascending for over a year between $19. and $37.and in a very clear up-trend. This is performance, unfortunately many Companies cannot boast such a positive! In 2007, at its peak it was at $28. and has made an excellent recovery from the lows in 2009 of $10. (I share this History to get your attention both with the positive and profitable Companies and with those who never should have been in anyone's portfolio -- this is what Fundamental - Valuations can do for you). The July Rally (which I called) remains in tack. I have documented my identification of that rally within my Performance Article. I have also put out an initial Bearish Warnings (October) to my Clients and wrote a definitive Bearish article in another financial blog and here in SafeHaven.com.

Unfortunately the foreseeable appreciation picture for COMCAST is not nearly as bright as most financial analysts and bloggers are publishing. Longer-term (six months to one year or more) my Fundamental - Valuation Analytics are consistent and are mildly declining in its Industry Group and the Marketplace. That does Not offer much hope for continued and reasonable appreciation especially in this Negative Market environment. The Negative Market environment is here to stay, longer than you might expect! That's yet another Warning.

When the General Market turns Bearish and is in trouble (and it IS in trouble) Companies like (CMCSA) will follow suit - and also head south. If you need to confirm this remark please (see the below 20-Year Chart and my brief History above) for (CMCSA) - or - any other Company listed above. That is a simple axiom of "Investing Wisely." This fact is particularly true when a Company has Less than "Excellent" Fundamental - Valuations at the time the General Market first starts showing Technical weakness (and it DEFINITELY showing Technical weakness).

My below charts also tell that story very clearly - study them instead of just giving them a quick glance. This being a fact, COMCAST will definitely participate in this General Market pull back for a time. It is currently off its recent highs only slightly, that's called giving an Investor a second or third chance to take profits. All this adds up to a future and clear Forecast that there will be notable hurt once again in the following weeks and perhaps months ahead.

My Fundamental - Valuations and Technical Analysis have produced very Accurate Forecasts for (CMCSA), many years. My Methodology has been continued to be completely on target (On the Button) for both COMCAST and other Companies / Industry Groups.

Most of the Companies I feature above pay a dividend. (Please read my recent article for Seniors regarding doubling your monthly income).

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Many Dow Companies, High Profile Companies and MANY others are have and are currently beginning to - hurt a meaningful hurt.

I suggest that - if you have been advised by anyone to HOLD a Company such as COMCAST - that those folks are offering -- just plain (unacceptable Asset Management Advice). Most mutual funds have this "Hold Companies like COMCAST)" perspective each and every day over the decades - Hum…

My Fundamental - Valuation for (CMCSA) remains a minus 10% - 15% or more for the foreseeable future. The previous leg down took this "Company" down over 70%. I hope some of my words (analytics) are getting your attention.

Note: You might want to do some arithmetic on how to maintain a profitable portfolio. What percent does it take to recover from a 50% loss? Answer: 100%. A 100% gain to recover from a 50% is almost in the realm of fantasy in today's Marketplace! Especially with Companies like COMCAST

A Pull-Back is my Short-Term (3 months to 6 months) Forecast. The good news is that -- one day again COMCAST will be a very profitable Company to own - study its Performance History. Unfortunately, that day is not project-able and therefore Prudence is the best Investment Strategy for (CMCSA) at this time.


Professor's - Report Card on: COMCAST (CMCSA)

Company
/ Symbol
Fundamental -
weighting (40%)
Technical -
weighting (35%)
Consensus Opinion -
weighting (25%)
Report Card -
Grade & Direction:

(0 - 100 / A - F) --
Ascending - Flat - Descending.
COMCAST (CMCSA) Good -- Very Good -- Very Good -- 78 / C + and Flat

Notes: My weighted Fundamental, Technical and Consensus Opinion ratings range from Excellent to Very Poor. Grades below 90 / A are not current (never are) candidates for buying. Grades above 60 / F are not current (never are) candidates for short selling. Information and data are ever changing, so be alert. Every companies "Grade" can from a neutral grade (60 to 90 / D to B) to a buy (greater than 90) or short sale (less than 60) in a very short time.

Why on Earth anyone would invest their money in other than a - Currently "A" Rated and Excellent Report Card - Company or ETF? This is beyond my capacity to understand! Perhaps you will follow this Guidance / Direction for these 13 Companies that I publish each and every week and someday plug-in with me.

My twenty-year chart of COMCAST is offered to give you a perspective. "Perspective" is yet another tool for making money that is seldom employed by Advisors and Investors alike.

My article here in SafeHaven.com on "My Rotation Model" supports the above Notes.


Two-Year (Comparative Percent) Chart of COMCAST (CMCSA) and S&P 500 - (SPY) - ETF

2-Year Comcast versus S&P500 Chart

You can clearly see in the above Chart that (CMCSA) and (SPY) are tracking each other rather well! That should be a "Warning." Please - Do not Buy or Short COMCAST, without talking with a seasoned financial analyst or perhaps visiting with me via Email.

Twenty-Year Chart of COMCAST (CMCSA) and S&P 500 - (SPY) - ETF

20-Year Chart: Comcast versus S&P (SPY)
Larger Image

I suggest that you to take a long look at this 20-year chart. Having a longer-term perspective of a possible future investment will always give you a more consistent bottom line. Comparing COMCAST (CMCSA) with the SPDR, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -- should tell you a very compelling story of how I go about profiting Technically in the stock market. It has much to do with "Perspective" and "Comparative Analytics." These two words make my job rather easy because there are always select Companies and ETFs that are "In-Favor." Unfortunately, Most Companies and ETFs are "Not In-Favor." Again, it's back to doing my Analytics and "My Rotation Model."


Professor's -- Weekly -- (Bullish Alert - or - Bearish Warning) --- For the General Market and the U.S. / Global Economies:

Bearish Warning

My Fundamentals are over-valued. My Technicals are over-bought. My Consensus Opinions are much too bullish. Insiders are selling, and Interest Rates and Dividends are on the rise. It does not get much more dismal than this, except when a Market Low is reached and then it is too late!

The Economies of the World's Economic Powers are in much more peril than is being reported by the Media.

COMCAST is definitely included in this Bearish Warning.

That means there is going to continue to be a great deal of hurt for your portfolio the foreseeable future.


For you Apple, Inc. believers, I am perhaps rubbing it in just a bit, but this "stuff" I share has made the "darling of Wall Street" just another Company that also follows the above Investment Strategy / Methodology / Guidance / Direction.


Writing these articles is easy after 50 years of doing my Fundamental and Technical Analytics - DILLIGENTLY! I sure would appreciate your feedback and perhaps expressions of interest in my professional services.

My Email Address is: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com


Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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