Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for December 22, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
Switching between Bullish and Bearish must be difficult for most Investors, I sympathize.
We are back to a Bullish Week for both the NY and the Nasdaq - but there was much more Up in the Nasdaq camp this week. For me, that means nothing! I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast is (barely) still in place. (Please see my Inflection Point Count on StockCharts Public List - see below for the URLs). Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS. I hope you agree that, like always NEWS is manufactured and often very misleading.
I hope you are joining my many Followers and Friends that believe that I am producing Very Accurate Forecasts. Accurate Forecasts lead to Results and Results are Profiting in the Stock Market. Bullish or Bearish, I hope you like what I am sharing. I mentioned that the Marketplace would get scary for the Bears towards the end of my Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally. If you are following the market rather closely you had to feel at least a twinge of "scary" on Monday and Tuesday of this past week. Well, the rest of the week including Friday should make you rather sanguine again. That's how it goes, each and every time the Cycles approach a change of direction. I call that an Inflection Point. Now, all I am focused on is a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point. My List of Candidates for Shorting are well in place.
The Bounce / Mini-Rally is also still in place but now is the time when I get very surgical. Precession and Selectivity is Critical, but most Investors and Financial Analysts still insist that you do not have to be "Surgical" / "Precise" / "Highly Selective." Clearly, also do not believe you have to spend many hours doing productive Analytics. If this is your belief, I can only say, with all due respect - you are wrong!
Repeating: This week's News was, you guessed it - "Fiscal Cliff." A catchy name that grabs headlines but have you scratched below the Hype? Spending or Taxes is the hype and the politicians in Washington and likely else where are happy as a pig in fresh mud. Only something very forceful will cause logic to prevail. Therefore, I am forecasting (Economically and Financially - Over-all) that there will be a) a fall over the cliff and b) that the Marketplace will continue to come lower. It will be the latter that is the stimulus that - "will cause logic to prevail."
The U.S. Economy has been propped up for decades by DEBT. The Government is in DEBT, and that has licensed the People to be in DEBT. The Japanese were the greatest Savers in modern time. Twenty years ago their Government - Changed the Rules - and today the Japanese are no longer Savers. Oh, by the way - Japan is in Deep Pucky - Economically and so is the U.S!
Perhaps rubbing it in just a bit -- Repeating: My June and October Forecast for Apple, Inc. was and is very accurate. I have used AAPL as a Bellwether for years and it is as good as any Indicator you might use. I am not so sure Apple, Inc. will not look a lot like Microsoft Corp. did over the past decade - in or after the next decade is over. That too is a Warning. Good Company Indicators are hard to find and they definitely don't last. Closing at $519 it is off its high of $702 by over 25%. Twenty percent is considered a Bear Market. So, Apple, Inc. is having its own Bear Market. I am forecasting a rally in Apple again, but that will likely be - "only a nice bounce." It is following my Forecast - check it/me out for accuracy.
Here is what I have said for weeks about the U.S. Recession: "the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recessions. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril."
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my Sunday (morning) "Client Weekly ("Rather Detailed") Forecast - Update."
The "Fiscal Cliff(s)" will also not soon go away...
The coming U.S. Recession will be very, very hurtful for the People. My Passport says on the first page "We the People." "People" is not a revered word for the leadership of most Countries in this world - any more. It (the Recession) will be "Cleansing" and that is good but you will see a very different world in the next few years.
For the week, the NY and the Nasdaq were UP. The last Pull Back lasted eight weeks. The Nasdaq was much stronger than the NY this past week. For me, that was expected.
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
A "Giant Update" is expected to be posted tomorrow in my blogs.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better despite what you read.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...
My Inflection Point (I.P.) Count and Now - More
It closed the week at again an anemic 54 - but bounced up a bit earlier in the week but pulled-back by the close on Friday. So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" it is likely telling us that my Forecast for a Pull-Back is coming sooner rather than later. Apple, Inc. has been telling this story for a few months now. Remember "News" can change that picture and often does! I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My Proprietary Indicator. I am now adding a second Market Indicator. Check it out.
I have just written another fancy program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of my I. P. Count Indicator. It caught the rally two days before it happened and this newest program gave over one week notice. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I Do Not Believe in or use a Crystal Ball -- Weegie Board - Witching Stick! My "stuff" requires many hours of experience and hard work!
You might want to stay in touch with My Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
This might just be the best Indicator I have ever seen! "Plug In" -- You might be impressed too?
I would appreciate your becoming a "Follower" and "Vote" to keep this Indicator Public. You will have to use this URL to participate.
I am requesting you to do this - so that StockCharts.com keeps me "live" on their Public List. Just click on "Follower" and / or "Vote" in the upper right corner after entering the following URL: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666. It is the only way to keep this work alive on StockCharts PublicList. You can Vote once per day!
Thanks for your support for my "stuff" - its growing...
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and will likely get a bit scary for the Bears before it is over - and it is Not Over Yet - despite Apple and others. I thought last week would be scary and even Monday's and Tuesday's rally was a farce. I understand that MANY of you do NOT agree, but I stopped reading and listening to other peoples opinions (OPO) over 40 years ago. If you disagree, you might do the same. Following people that think like you is EXPENSIVE in the LONG-TERM.
My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients over those years -- without OPOs.
I do however, encourage your Following, even if I provoke you a bit. That is intended to get your attention - I hope it does.
* The Stock Market - (Indices ) was UP - NY and Nasdaq this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Breadth) continued Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was UP this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
Weekly Conclusion: They (the above) are currently and generally - In Sync. And they all have Deteriorating (Bearish) Technical Indicators. Understand that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators... I know of no Financial Analyst that has an Accurate Handle on - these four important and key Market Indicators. My Forecast for a Bounce / Mini-Rally is still in force.
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider / Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be activated. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were Down slightly for the week. I have Forecast that: A Pull Back is in the making. That Forecast is accurate for 6 weeks now. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings were offered then and now!
The U.S. Dollar was Up slightly. It seems to be leading Treasuries for several months. My Forecast Rally now looks like it is Topping or has Topped.
Oil (Crude) was Up again but that won't last. Last Week I said: "A Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again rather soon." Crude Oil has been down since early September. That too was Forecast.
Gold was Down rather big - 2.4%. Is a rally in the making? I'll let you know... Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1698 is a long ways from getting excited again. The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement from what I read -- they too are just doing their thing! And that is most usually the Wrong Thing.
Silver was also Down - BIG over 7% and is clearly coming lower. This has been my Forecast for several months. Is currently tracking Gold - or - vice-versa?
Commodities (Comprehensive) was Down just a bit. Last week I said: "A Pull-Back is in the making." That too is now Fact! When will it Rally? I keep close tabs on these Commodities, they too are great Indicators for knowing the future direction of the Stock Market.
I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.
My Email Address: email@example.com
For SafeHaven.com Readers
The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
Companies & ETFs - (Included in my On Going - Forecasts): AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD. (To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol ).
StockCharts (ALL ( 50 or so) High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"