Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for January 5, 2012
Good Morning: It's Saturday again...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
Well the "Switching between Bullish and Bearish" each week continues.
Permit me to make this point over and over again. You must separate a "News" drive Market from the Real Thing! This past few weeks should explain that remark in spades. If not you are in trouble as an Investor.
We are back to a Bullish Week, a very Bullish Week for both the NY and the Nasdaq. For me, that means nothing so long as my Fundamental - Valuations and Technical Indicators are working very, very well. Believe me they are definitely - Working Very, Very Well!
I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast - remains and is (barely) still in place. (Please see my Inflection Point Count on StockCharts Public List - see below for the URLs).
I will repeat this paragraph until the cows come home: Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS. I hope you agree that, like always NEWS is manufactured and often very misleading. For me, the Fiscal Cliff thing was and now has become just another Washington joke. The shenanigans that go on, each and every day are not worth your energy of trying to figure out. Learn to just smile.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally is also still in place but now is the time when I get very surgical.
Repeating: This week's News was, you guessed it - "Fiscal Cliff." A catchy name that grabs headlines but have you scratched below the Hype? Curtailed Spending and/or Higher Taxes is the hype by the media.
Repeating: The U.S. Economy has been propped up for decades by DEBT. The Government is in DEBT, and that has licensed the People to be in DEBT. The Japanese were the greatest Savers in modern time. Twenty years ago their Government - Changed the Rules - and today the Japanese are no longer - like in the U.S. - good Savers. Oh, by the way - Japan is in Deep Pucky - Economically and so is the U.S!
Repeating: Perhaps rubbing it in just a bit -- Repeating: My June and October Forecast for Apple, Inc. was and is very accurate. I have used AAPL as a Bellwether for years and it is as good as any Indicator you might use. I am not so sure Apple, Inc. will not look a lot like Microsoft Corp. did over the past decade - that is after the next decade is over. That too is a Warning. Good Company Indicators are hard to find and they definitely don't last.
In this supposed powerful Bullish week you might have a look at the performance of Apple, Inc. High: $555 / Low: $509 / Close: $527. Those number are telling you a great story but my experience is that few people pay attention to details like this. It won't be long before AAPL resumes its current Down-Trend.
Closing at $527 it is off its high of $702 by over 20%. Twenty percent is considered a Bear Market by most "Market Experts Opinons." So, Apple, Inc. is having its own Bear Market. Last Saturday I Said: I am forecasting a rally in Apple again, but that will likely be - "only a nice bounce." It is following my Forecast - check it/me out for accuracy.
Remember, Apple, Inc. is one of my Bellwether Companies that I follow very closely.
Here is what I have said for weeks about the U.S. Recession: "the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recessions. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril."
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my Sunday (morning) "Client Weekly ("Rather Detailed") Forecast - Update."
The "Fiscal Cliff(s)" will also not soon go away...
The coming U.S. Recession will be very, very hurtful for the People. My Passport says on the first page "We the People." "People" is not a revered word for the leadership of most Countries in this world - any more. It (the Recession) will be "Cleansing" and that is good but you will see and be living in a very different world in the next few years.
For the week, the NY and the Nasdaq were UP a lot due to euphoric and likely unrealistic response to the News. The last Pull Back lasted eight weeks.
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Job gains reported Friday depressed the Marketplace. There are over 3 million workers hopelessly unemployed. And, people keep speculating in the Stock Market.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better despite what you read.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...
My Inflection Point (I.P.) Count and Now - More
It closed the week at again an anemic 74 - but bounced up a bit for the week So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" it is likely telling us that my Forecast for a General Market -- Pull-Back is coming sooner rather than later. Apple, Inc. has been telling this story for a few months now. Remember "News" can change that picture very quickly and often does! I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My Proprietary Indicator. I am now adding a second Market Indicator. Check it out.
I have recently written another fancy technical program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of my I. P. Count Indicator. It caught the rally two days before it happened and this newest program gave over one week notice. For me, that is impressive! See page three. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I Do Not Believe in or use a Crystal Ball -- Weegie Board - Witching Stick! My "stuff" requires many hours of using my experience (good and bad) and hard work!
You might want to stay in touch with My Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
I now use 6 proprietary Technical Tools that can only be created and monitored by using data input to Excel graphics.
This might just be the best Indicator I have ever seen! "Plug In" -- You might be impressed too?
I would appreciate your becoming a "Follower" and "Vote" to keep this Indicator Public. You will have to use the below URL to participate.
I am requesting you to do this - so that StockCharts.com keeps me "live" on their Public List. Just click on "Follower" and / or "Vote" in the upper right corner after entering the following URL: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666. It is the only way to keep this work alive on StockCharts PublicList. You can Vote once per day!
Thanks for your support for my "stuff" - its growing...
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and it is Not Over Yet - despite Apple and many other Companies plummeting.
My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients for over 50 years with only two set-backs.
Summary for the Week
* The Stock Market - (Indices) was Up - NY and Nasdaq this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Breadth) continued Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
Weekly Conclusion: They (the above) are currently and generally - In Sync. And they all have serious Deteriorating (Bearish) Technical Indicators. Understand that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators... I know of no Financial Analyst that has an Accurate Handle on - these four important and key Market Indicators. My Forecast for a Bounce / Mini-Rally is still in force.
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider / Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be activated. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were as expected Down for the week. I have Forecast for well over a month that: A Pull Back is in the making. That Forecast is accurate for 6 weeks now having a Flat Top. Last week I said: This week I have changed my Forecast to Bullish. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings / Forecasts were offered then and now!
The U.S. Dollar was Up over one percent. Note the divergence between Tresuries and the Dollar. Investors think the track exactly - The Don't! The Dollar seems to be leading Treasuries for several months - that could be the cast. As for the Market the Dollar would be considered quite Bearish for the past three weeks. Hum... My (quite accurate) Forecast Rally now looks like it is beginning to Top.
Oil (Crude) was Up again BIG but that won't last. Last Week I said: "A Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again rather soon." Crude Oil has been down since early September. That too was Forecast.
Gold was Flat. Is a rally in the making? Yes but I won't participate for awhile. I'll let you know... Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1658 is a long ways from getting excited again.
The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement. From what I read -- they too are just doing their thing for the past year or so! And that is most usually the Wrong Thing.
Silver was also Up slightly. Same question - is a rally in the making? Yes, but I would wait awhile. Is currently tracking Gold - or - vice-versa?
Commodities (Comprehensive) was Down just a bit. "After my Forecast September to December of a Pull-Back - I now Forecast that a Rally is in the making." That too Questionable! I keep close tabs on these Commodities, they too are great Indicators for knowing the future direction of the Stock Market.
I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.
My Email Address: email@example.com
For SafeHaven.com Readers
The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
13 Companies & 13 ETFs - (Included in my On Going Articles and Forecasts here in SafeHaven.com): AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD. (To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol).
StockCharts (High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"