When to Buy / When to Hold Cash

By: Steve Bauer | Mon, Jan 7, 2013
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You may already know that my Forecasts for both the General Market and Specific Securities and ETFs is/are very Accurate.

There are many criteria on how to determine When you are in a Bullish or Bearish Cycle. And, indeed I use a bunch of them.

If you follow my Public Chart List - you will see my notations that there are Primary Cycles and Secondary Cycles. This is true for both Bullish and Bearish environments. Have a look at page 2 and 3. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666

You also know that there are unique time frames when I will take Bullish positions in a Bearish Primary Cycle and Bearish positions in a Primary Bullish Cycle. This has been clearly proven and documented here in SafeHaven.com via my flow of articles.


Unfortunately, these articles require a great deal of my time to do the proper amount of research and write. I am sensitive about having response from my readers and for the several years I have been faithfully posting the response has been pathetic. So, I am cutting back on providing my specific guidance to a point where, I believe my articles cannot be used to make money, if you invest When I offer my guidance. I will write from time to time more generic articles like this one.


Generic (rather than) Specific

My articles often talk about When / What / Why. All three are equally important but the When to become Bullish or Bearish is critical if you want to have a profitable year or decade. Investing in the What is very important (see My Rotation Model) for an explanation. However, investing in the perfect What at the wrong time is asking to lose money and really not very smart. That's why I insist on having the Why - I should take a position or hold cash is so critical for me.

So, what is my Big Picture and just maybe you can benefit, I hope so. Investing in common stock must be compared to investing in Government Bonds. I use Treasuries to balance my risk / reward formula. As you know I also do more Fundamental Analytics than most of my peers. My rather unique method for doing my Valuation work still tells me that this Marketplace is way to high to be Bullish.

The fact that the Marketplace changes, just frequently enough to keep me happy to be faithful to all the grunt work / analytics that I do, each and every day, is very satisfying.


Some stats you might want to ponder are:


I sincerely hope, you will want to Email and visit a bit with me. Email Address: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com


Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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