Long-Count for the Dow - Don't be fooled Again

By: Joseph Russo | Thu, Jan 24, 2013
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Stock Market Winner

Considering the widespread collective failure and insolvency of the financial markets and global monetary systems in 2008/2009, you tell me if the Dow/S&P are fundamentally worthy of revisiting their respective bubble-laden historic highs from which they previously crashed with good cause.

 

Dow Weekly Line Chart
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In my view, the heady price action of the tape is nothing more than a manifestation of an imposed perception of fictitious reality brought about via the highly corrupt, unjust, immoral, and ultimately treasonous self-serving apparatus of a rather vulnerable authoritarian government and those foundational institutions of human domination to which they truly serve.

Despite my personal views on distinguishing fact from fiction and reality from perception, my duty as an analyst remains impartially beholden to the price action, regardless of the way and means by which it manifests.

All those who have diligently followed my work over the years are well aware that I rely upon the predictive properties of technical analysis and Elliott Wave merely as a conformational framework of probable tendency rather than any sort of science, arcane alchemy, or dare I say religion.


The Reality of Fiction-Based Position Bias

Although wave counts, chart patterns, and price targets have merit, I base my official time-horizon guidance for members solely upon proprietary trading strategies as illustrated via the Trend Signal Bias indicator located in the lower chart panel.

The strategic position bias protocols applied know not of egregious intervention nor emotionally charged opinions of any persuasion. The position bias protocol simply responds to the nominal price action itself.

Since November of 2009, this long-term strategic protocol has been bullish on the Dow, and shall remain so until a sell signal visually confirms such an event.

Soon we will be posting the lifetime performance metrics of these strategies, which will illustrate and verify how each has fared against various markets and time horizons. Stay tuned.


Long-Count & Fictional Price Targets within the current realm of Artificial Reality

Outside the purview of our strategic position bias protocols, we cite additional upside in the Dow north of 16K as plausible. If achieved, we are prospecting that early April and late August of 2013 represent the earliest time horizon in which the Dow might reach such lofty targets.

Also outside the purview of our position bias protocols, we cite the possibility for an imminent failure of the Dow to achieve the substantial level of a minor degree -e- wave overthrow required to capture such targets.

Insofar as the long-count goes in tracking the fiction otherwise known as the miraculous stock market recovery, which is widely perceived as attributable to the brilliance of our monetary and social handlers, the 4-year Bull Run is getting somewhat long in the tooth.

Dow Weekly Line Chart
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Relative to the application of a classic Elliott Wave framework, the long-standing question as to the degree of trend in force remains a mystery solved only by the forthcoming price action over the next several years.

Although completely incidental relative to our position bias protocols, pondering whether or not the 2009 low marked that of a Primary vs. Cycle degree base remains rather intriguing nonetheless.

The prognosis would be startlingly bearish if the 2009 low turns out to be only that of a Primary degree base simply because it would suggest that the current bull market rally is a phony primary degree "B" wave.

On the other hand, if the 2009 low turns out to be one degree larger, at Cycle dimension, then there is at least the possibility that when the current primary "A" move up terminates, although it will lead to a primary bear market down in wave "B", another primary "C" wave advance can be bullishly anticipated.

Thereafter, that last primary leg up shall end the entire fairy tale/Ponzi scheme. Upon the completion of a future primary degree "C" wave advance, it will cap the insidious and unmerciful cresting of the "B" wave at cycle dimension.

Upon its arrival, when and wherever it may occur, the quaking of the "B" wave crest at Cycle Dimension will tip the 100-year punchbowl off its alter of evil, and shatter it into several hundred trillion unfixable pieces.

This event shall either mark the beginning of the end toward a prolonged age of darkness, or it shall mark the beginning of struggle and sacrifice toward a new renaissance of truth, laws, equality, and justice that will usher in a substantial period of lasting peace, harmony, and broad based prosperity.


Nobody in this pack will ever be fooled again

The arbiter of such outcome shall not rest with the ruling class, governments, foundational institutions, or global authorities, but with the awareness and the sheer will of each individual taking responsibility for and deciding their individual fate collectively, one by one.

For whatever it may be worth to you, rest assured that no matter what the outcome or when, either hedged in tangible assets or maintaining exposure to paper-based assets of debt, our pack will always run briskly on the right side of the market.

If recent history is any guide, the moment that danger signs appear in the near distance, we shall part company with legions of a noticeably disoriented herd heading assuredly for another round of relentless slaughter.

Given the virtually assured pathetic repetition of history, I strongly advise travelling within close proximity to a strong pack that has proven itself capable of having the rational wherewithal to break from the herd when duly appropriate.

 


 

Joseph Russo

Author: Joseph Russo

Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

Joseph Russo

Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.

Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.

Since the official launch of his Elliott Wave Technology website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to, ...

  • In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).

  • In 2006, the (MTA) Market Technicians Association featured his article "Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom" in their industry newsletter, "Technically Speaking."

  • On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in "Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow."

  • On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in "V-for Vendetta," using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.

  • Working extensively with EasyLanguage® programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of "Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation," he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.

  • On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a key bottom in the long bond at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.

  • For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of Prudent Measures in 2012.

  • He publicly warned of a major top in Apple on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
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