Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for January 26, 2013
Good Morning: It's Saturday again...
Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:
This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation and Inflection Points.
I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING guidance with this consistent accuracy.
All my articles are based on "My Methodology" - You might consider spending some time reviewing the following URL: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27312/my-methodology
The Market for the Past Week
This will be my Last Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap.
My reason for me is Simple, Reader Response is Pathetic.
This is Accurate "Stuff" and takes a great deal of time to research and write. That should be understood by all.
Four weeks of modest Gain but Gain is Gain - that cannot be denied. This past week was more legitimate than previous weeks because earnings were strong. Why then did the Market not LEAP rather than CRAWL?
There is Greed and there is Fear that always go to extremes. Greed is at such an Extreme. In my work / analytics this means a Correction is way over-do. That only means - never buy at this level and sell what you own and hold cash.
Permit me to make this point over and over again. You must separate - a "News" driven Market from the Real Thing! The "Real Thing" is a "Pure Data Driven Market." It's a "wheat from the chaff" separation and few people / investors seem to understand. This past few months should explain that remark in spades.
This past couple of years has become a "News" Driven and I believe a Political influenced / manipulated Stock Market. This is producing an invisible "Bubble" that is going to Blindside both Investors and the Mutual Fund Analysts severely.
My Fundamental - Valuations and Technical Indicators are working very, very well. And regarding the Financials my Fundamental - Valuations and Technical Indicators are telling me this Bearish story quite clearly. Believe me, My Analytic studies are definitely - Working Very, Very Well! It is only a matter of time and patience to see - Just How Well!
The Administration and Wall Street are setting up its People for a massive - Humpty-Dumpty Fall. Remember the saying: All the Kings horses and all the Kings men could't...
I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce / Mini-Rally I have Forecast - remains and is (barely) still in place. I am so sorry it takes so much Patience and Discipline to follow my Forecasts and understand the Marketplace. (Please see my Inflection Point Count on StockCharts Public List - see below for the URLs).
I will repeat this paragraph until the cows come home and they are not coming home in the for-seeable future: Remember, there is only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - "NEWS." I hope you agree that, like always "NEWS" is manufactured and often very, very misleading. For me, the Fiscal Cliff thing was and now has become just another Washington joke. The shenanigans that go on, each and every day are not worth your energy of trying to read about or figure out. Learn to just smile when you read, if you read the Media's effort to inform the public.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally is also still in place but now is the time when I get very surgical. (this I have said for the past four weeks). I have said that for 3 weeks and for 3 weeks Apple, now Intel and many, many fine companies have already had a Humpty-Dumpty FALL. Many more will follow.
Repeating: The U.S. Economy has been propped up for decades by DEBT. The Government is in DEBT, and that has licensed the People to be in DEBT. The Japanese were the greatest Savers in modern time. Twenty years ago their Government - Changed the Rules - and today the Japanese are no longer - like in the U.S. - good Savers. Oh, by the way - Japan is in Deep Pucky - Economically and so is the U.S!
Repeating: Perhaps rubbing it in just a bit -- Repeating: My June and October Forecast for Apple, Inc. was and is very accurate. I have used AAPL as a Bellwether for years and it is as good as any Indicator you might use. I am not so sure Apple, Inc. will not look a lot like Microsoft Corp. did over the past decade - that is after the next decade is over. That too is a Warning. Good Company Indicators are hard to find and they definitely don't last.
In this supposed powerful Bullish week you might have a look at the performance of Apple, Inc. High: $515 / Low: $435 / Close: $440. Those number are telling you a great story but my experience is that few people pay attention to details like this.
Closing at $440 with a high of $702 - that's a "Blindside" hit that you Apple Believers will never understand. The same thing happened in previous years when a Bear Market wiped out over 50% of Apples value. It is already down by over 37% and down over 12% for the Week. Twenty percent is considered a Bear Market by most "Market Experts Opinons." Hells / Bells - those guys and gals have not been right for decades. So, Apple, Inc. is having its own Bear Market along with hundreds of other Companies.
Remember, Apple, Inc. is one of my Bellwether Companies that I have followed very closely for a very long time.
Since I turned Bearish on Apple, Inc. the darling of Wall Street I have lost Followers and gained new Clients. That should tell you something about the kind of people that Follow the Blogs and don't bother to engage their brain when they read so many, many Blogs.
More on that tomorrow - exclusively in my Sunday (morning) "Client Weekly ("Rather Detailed") Forecast - Update."
Here is what I have said for weeks about the U.S. Recession: ""the U.S. is in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are IN Formal / Announced Recessions. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also in peril.""
The coming U.S. Recession will be very, very hurtful for the People. My Passport says on the first page "We the People." "People" is not a revered word for the leadership of most Countries in this world - any more. It (the Recession) will be "Cleansing" and that is good but you will see and be living in a very different world in the next few years.
For the week, the NY and the Nasdaq was FLAT due to Investors become more sober about the Negative Economy and Earnings. The last Pull Back lasted eight weeks.
My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was again endorsed and magnified this past week.
Europe and Asia are not doing any better despite what you read.
Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...
My Inflection Point (I.P.) Count and Now - More
It closed the week Up as would be expected at 87. So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" is telling us that my Forecast for a General Market -- Pull-Back is coming sooner rather than later. The damned "News" and "Minuplation" is distorting the health of the Marketplace - Big-Time! Apple, Inc. has been telling this story for a few months now. Remember "News" can change that picture very quickly and often does! I continue to be impressed with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My Proprietary Indicator. I am now adding a second Market Indicator. Check it out.
I have recently written another fancy technical program that goes even further into the "guts and bones" of my I. P. Count Indicator. It caught the rally two days before it happened and this newest program gave over one week notice. For me, that is impressive!
See page three of: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I Do Not Believe in or use a Crystal Ball -- Weegie Board - Witching Stick! My "stuff" requires many hours of using my experience (good and bad), grinding through an enormous amount of data and hard work!
You might want to stay in touch with My Proprietary Indicator. Go to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79023347983&a=270034212
I now use 6 proprietary Technical Tools that can only be created and monitored by using data input to Excel graphics
This might just be the best Indicator I have ever seen! "Plug In" -- You might be impressed too?
Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish Inflection Point is well over due.
My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and it is Not Over Yet - despite Apple and many other Companies plummeting.
My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients for over 50 years with only two set-backs.
Summary for the Week
* The Stock Market - (Indices) was Up - NY and Nasdaq this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Breadth) continued Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Up this past Week as Forecast!
Weekly Conclusion: They (the above) are currently and generally - In Sync. And they all have serious Deteriorating (Bearish) Technical Indicators. Understand that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators... I know of no Financial Analyst that has an Accurate Handle on - these four important and key Market Indicators.
My November Forecast for a Bounce / Mini-Rally is still in force.
Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider / Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to be activated. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In) I cannot take further Bearish Positions.
Treasuries were as expected Down, just a bit for the week. I have Forecast for well over a month that: A Pull Back is in the making. That Forecast is accurate for 6 weeks now having a Flat Top. Last week I said: I changed my Forecast to Bullish. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings / Forecasts were offered then and now! This week is just another - wait and see proposition.
The U.S. Dollar was Down, just a bit for the week. Note the divergence between Treasuries and the Dollar. Investors think the track exactly - They Don't! The Dollar seems to be leading Treasuries for several months - that could be the case. As for the Market the Dollar would be considered quite Bearish for the past three weeks. Hum... My (quite accurate) Forecast Rally now looks like it is beginning to Top. This week it did Top and looks like there is more Downside coming.
Oil (Crude) was Up a tad for the week. Last Week I said: "A Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again rather soon." Crude Oil has been down since early September. That too was Forecast. This week it remains very Toppy! You might look at Inverse ETFs for Crude Oil.
Gold was Down, 1.5% for the week. Is a rally in the making? I have recently said that if it is that I won't participate for awhile. That may change, I will have a long look at the Miners today and I'll let you know... Remember the Highs were way back in August 2011 at $1925. The current price of $1659 is a long ways from getting excited again.
The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement. From what I read -- they too are just doing their thing (losing money) for the past year or so! This week it appears that a rally is coming, but the Miners do not look very supportive.
Silver was Down, 1.9% for the week. (Leading Gold?) Same question - is a rally in the making? Yes, but I would wait awhile. Is Silver currently tracking Gold - or - vice-versa? Again, I will be doing my Homework.
Commodities (Comprehensive) was Up a tad for the week. "After my Forecast September to December of a Pull-Back - I now Forecast that a Rally is in the making." Turning Up this week is notable. I keep close tabs on these Commodities, they too are great Indicators for knowing the future direction of the Stock Market. This week it is another - wait and see situation.
I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.
My Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
For SafeHaven.com Readers
The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.
13 Companies & 13 ETFs - (Included in my On Going Articles and Forecasts here in SafeHaven.com): AA, AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, CSCO, F, GE, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, AT&T, XOM,BJK, IAI, IAT, IGV, KOL, XAR, XBI, XES, XHB, XME, XOP, XPH, XSD. (To view my 20-Year Charts for Companies and / or 5-Year Charts for ETF for any of the above Symbols - just Click on the Symbol ).
StockCharts (High Profile - Bellwether Companies) Public List: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666
I hope you will become a regular Follower and perhaps a valued Client. My work / analytics should be very compelling for your considering working with me.
Smile, Have Fun - "Investing Wisely,"