When prodded about his thought process, Einstein once famously said, "When
I examine myself and my methods of thought, I come close to the conclusion
that the gift of imagination has meant more to me than any talent for absorbing
absolute knowledge." Continuing, he added, "All great achievements of science
must start with intuitive knowledge. I believe in intuition and inspiration...At
times I feel certain I am right while not knowing the reason." Concluding,
he finished, "I am enough of the artist to draw freely upon my imagination.
Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination
encircles the world."
Generally speaking - and as pretentious as it may be to strike the parallel,
I approach visualizing markets and momentum through a kindred prism. Technical
analysis is knowledge - knowledge of the past. Intuition - through creativity
- helps unlock the future.
With that said, the immediate future continues to look troublesome for the
euro, Aussie, silver and the precious metals miners.
Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when
approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each
piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found
that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations
in the market and an endless potential for risk.
I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes.
I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums
can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to
know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can
read the charts and know the risks.
I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize
its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.
I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.
Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances
should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment,
trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to
your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader
or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational
and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject
to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information
and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading
decision.
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