The State of the Trend
Last week we were expecting the indices to continue marching up for the usual end-of-month rally, and for market breadth to complete a downward cycle swing. Market breadth bottomed out on Thursday and the cyclical turnaround, with the help of a frendly jobs report, propelled all the indices above their short-term resistance on Friday. In the process, the DJIA and SPX made new all-time highs:
But even more importantly, the QQQ managed to break above and rebound from the 50% retracement of the 2000 high:
Although the two day upthrust seems to be exhausted for the moment:
Market breadth just started bottoming out, and has several more days before it reaches overbought levels:
The first week of May ended with a bang, but the markets are entering a seasonally slow period. Once again, quantitative easing will square off with the well entrenched "sell in May" market wisdom. We believe that the next chart will help you stay on the right side of the trend:
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