Financial Markets Forecast & Analysis

By: Robert McHugh | Sun, May 8, 2005
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Summary of Index Daily Closings for the Week Ending May 6, 2005
Date DJIA Transports S&P NASDAQ Jun 30 Yr Treas
May 2 10251.70 3483.83 1162.16 1928.65 114^28
May 3 10256.95 3462.65 1161.17 1933.07 114^27
May 4 10384.64 3519.69 1175.65 1962.23 114^21
May 5 10340.38 3528.85 1172.10 1961.80 114^28
May 6 10345.40 3533.66 1171.35 1967.35 114^00

(Next Two Weeks)
Substantial Rise Low      
Market Rise Medium   Very High   80%
Sideways High   High   60%
Market Decline Medium   Medium   40%
Substantial Decline Medium   Low   20%
      Very Low Under   20%
(Next 12 Weeks)
TREND PROBABILITY   Substantial   800 points+ (DJIA)
Substantial Rise Low   Market Move   200 to 800 points (DJIA)
Market Rise Medium   Sideways   Up or Down 200 (DJIA)
Sideways Medium      
Market Decline High      
Substantial Decline High      

The Dow Industrials rose 152.89 points this week, in line with our Short-term TII indicator reading of positive 20.25. Friday was a flat day, on low volume, even breadth, with the spread between NYSE new 52 week highs minus new lows narrowing from Thursday's level. Very little useful information coming from Thursday and Friday's action other than to say, demand is not increasing. But selling isn't either, as we sit at a point of equilibrium.

Today, May 6th, was the first day of our Fibonacci phi mate turn window of May 6th through the 11th. What we do know is that we are expecting a top here, but we also know that top did not come today. So strike May 6th from the window. We look for a turn lower coming from a top between May 9th and 11th, early next week.

In terms of time, the DJIA has rallied 12 trading days, approximately 38.2 percent of the 31 days it declined from March 7th through April 20th. The last day of our window, May 11th, would be approximately a Fibonacci 50.0 percent of the decline's time.

Equities Markets Technical Indicator Index (TII) ™    
Week Ended Short Term Index Intermediate Term Index    
Jan 21, 2004 (25.50) (21.83)   Scale
Jan 28, 2004 (39.75) (31.63)    
Feb 4, 2004 (11.95) (33.08)   (100) to +100
Feb 11, 2005 9.85 (25.79)    
Feb 18, 2005 (12.20) (25.29)   (Negative)  Bearish
Feb 25, 2005 (2.25) (28.29)   Positive  Bullish
Mar 4, 2005 (6.65) (32.46)    
Mar 11, 2005 (5.65) (26.79)    
Mar 18, 2005 4.60 (30.33)    
Mar 24, 2005 24.75 (23.92)    
Apr 1, 2005 (1.20) (23.54)    
Apr 8, 2005 16.00 (16.83)    
Apr 15, 2005 (19.15) (27.75)    
Apr 22, 2005 19.00 (33.62)    
Apr 29, 2005 20.25 (31.71)    
May 6, 2005 13.30 (24.42)    

This week the Short-term Technical Indicator Index comes in at positive 13.30, indicating the minor corrective rally should continue into early next week. This indicator is a useful predictor of equity market moves over the next week, both as to direction and to a lesser extent strength of move. It is a risk indicator, not a buy/sell indicator. For example, readings near zero indicate narrow sideways moves are probable. Readings closer to +/-100 indicate with a higher degree of confidence that an impulsive move up or down is likely over the short run. Market conditions can change on a dime, or the Plunge Protection Team can come in and temporarily stop market slides, so it may be unwise to trade off this weekly measured indicator.

The Intermediate-term Technical Indicator Index is a risk indicator, useful for monitoring what's over the horizon - over the next twelve weeks. It serves as an early warning system for unforeseen trend changes of considerable magnitude. This week the Intermediate-term TII comes in at negative ( 24.42). The improvement is because it is seeing the massive two-week M-3 infusion by the Fed as helping stocks, mitigating risks.

It is important to understand that markets - and especially equity markets - seek order. The order they seek often falls into neat, precise Fibonacci Ratio time and price intervals. In the charts we annotate each week, we often point out price retracements and advances that proceed, stop, and turn at precise Fibonacci Ratios in relation to prior price movements. What we have noted to be true, is that price trend tops, bottoms, and reversals also occur very often at precise Fibonacci time intervals with other turn dates. Before going further, for the benefit of new subscribers, here's a thumbnail sketch of the mathematics of Fibonacci numbers and ratios, and why they might be integral to financial markets:

While Fibonacci numbers and ratios have existed since the Creation, a 12th century mathematician, Leonardo Fibonacci, is largely credited with identifying the unique sequence and ratios, and their prevalence throughout nature.

The sequence goes like this: It starts with the number 1 and then adds that number to itself to get the next number. It then takes those two numbers and adds them together to get the next number in sequence. Each number next in sequence is the sum of the prior two numbers in the sequence, ad infinitum. Thus the sequence looks like this: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, etc... The ratios between these numbers are unique in that each addend is either .382 or .618 of the sum. For example, 13 plus 21 equals 34. 21 is .618 of 34. 13 is .382 of 34. .618 plus .382 equals a complete 1.00. This holds true for all pairs. These pairs are known as phi mates. The world around us is filled with these ratios and relationships. Robert R. Prechter, Jr.'s amazing book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics, New Classics Library, 2002, does a terrific job running down how Fibonacci numbers and ratios are everywhere throughout nature. What is so amazing is that market price and time movements are also dominated by Fibonacci numbers and ratios.

About a year ago, we took notice that when the Dow Industrials ended their two-decade Bull Market on January 14th 2000, something spectacular occurred. It was as if that date was to become one of the most meaningful in the history of the markets. Yet, no one that I am aware of has identified it as such. What is so special about January 14th, 2000? Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped then, but so what? Yes, it can be said that January 14th, 2000 marked the official start of the Bear market. Again, what's the big deal?

Since this dramatic date, every single market top or bottom of measurable significance has occurred precisely in a Fibonacci .618 to .382 ratio of trading days from either that starting date 1/14/00, or another top or bottom that has occurred since 1/14/2000, based upon closing balances. This is astonishing! A mathematical formula has been 100 percent correct in predicting market tops or bottoms in the Dow Industrials since the Bear began on January 14th, 2000, exactly five years ago today! Every top. Every bottom. Every turn. Each, an exact Fibonacci ratio number of trading days from the Bear's start and from another top or bottom during that Bear. And the trend continues. And nobody is talking about it! You didn't hear about this from your Merrill Lynch research department folks, nor the happy faces on CNBC. Nope. You heard about it at

Let me give you an example of what we are talking about. October 9th, 2002's low for the Bear market came 687 trading days from the start of the Bear on January 14th 2000. This number of trading days happens to be essentially 61.8 percent of the number of trading days from 1/14/00 to a significant Bear market top, June 23, 2004's top, which occurred 1,115 trading days from 1/14/00. The ratio 687 to 1,115 essentially equals .618 - phi.

Here's another example. September 6th, 2000's top is 162 trading days from 1/14/00. September 21st, 2001's bottom is 423 trading days from the start of the Bear, 1/14/00. The ratio of 162 to 423 is a Fibonacci 1.0 minus phi, or .382.

Again, let me repeat, there is a either a .382 or .618 ratio relationship for every single top or bottom since January 14th, 2000 with another top or bottom since January 14th, 2000. The chart on the next page chronicles every top and bottom since 1/14/2000 and identifies each's phi mate, the other top or bottom that it shares a .382 or .618 ratio number of trading days relationship with. What is fascinating is that in the early going, these Fibonacci phi ratios might be off a few thousands of a percent here or there, but the further out from January 14th, 2000, the more precise the ratios are, hitting .382 or .618 almost right on the nose.

This log of phi mates, below, chronicles the amazing Fibonacci pattern that earmarks the current Bear market as something unusual in the making, a Bear market of particular significance in the annals of market history. Below are 25 tops and bottoms since 1/14/2000 that have a phi mate. 25 pairs over a five-year period. I'm sorry, but this is not a random occurrence. This is nothing short of bizarre. There is no logical explanation for it from a human perspective. It is not coincidence.

* 3/7/2000's low is 38.0% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/2000's High to 5/26/2000's Low
* 5/26/2000's Low is 38.0% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 12/20/00's Low
* 9/6/2000's High is 38.3% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 9/21/01's Low
* 10/18/2000's Low is 38.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 1/4/02's High
* 11/6/2000's High is 37.6% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 3/19/02's High
* 11/22/2000's Low is 37.9% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 4/29/02's Low
* 12/5/2000's High is 38.7% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 5/17/02's High
* 1/3/2001's High is 37.6% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 8/22/02's High
* 3/22/2001's High is 37.9% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 3/11/03's Low
* 5/21/2001's High is 62.6% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 3/19/02's High
* 9/21/2001's Low is 61.6% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 10/9/02's Low
* 1/4/2002's High is 61.5% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 3/31/03's Low
* 3/19/2002's High is 63.4% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 6/17/03's High
* 7/23/2002's Low is 61.7% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 2/11/04's High
* 8/22/2002's High is 62.1% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 3/24/04's Low
* 10/9/2002's Low is 61.6% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 6/23/04's Low
* 11/6/2002's Top is 61.5% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 8/12/04's Low
* 11/27/02's High is 61.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 9/7/04's High
* 12/27/02's Low is 61.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 10/25/04's Low
* 1/14/03's High is 61.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 11/18/04's Minor Top
* 12/5/01's Minor High is 38.2% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 12/28/04's High
* 12/14/01's Low is 38.2% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 1/24/05's Low
* 3/11/03's Low is 61.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 2/15/05's High
* 3/21/03's High is 61.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 3/4/05's Top
* 4/7/03's Minor High is 61.8% of the total # of trading days from 1/14/00's High to 4/1/05's High

You know what I believe is going on? I'll tell you what I think is going on. I think God has a sense of humor. I think God gets a kick out of the arrogance of mankind. I think God is saying, "Hey mankind, the billions of transactions you millions of people conduct with hundreds of thousands of different points of view based upon tens of thousands of strategies based upon thousands of advisors and news reports all mingles together to result in prices that move exactly how I decide they will; will top and bottom when I tell them to, that ultimately I am in control, and here is the proof, so humble yourselves and seek my face." That's what I think God is saying. To me it is either God, or a random sequence that is astronomically improbable. That's just my take. I'd love to hear yours.

The chart below is a picture of these Fibonacci phi ratio relationship tops and bottoms since 2000. It is getting a bit busy since we began showing it about a year ago. We may have to start showing this on two charts as it continues into 2005 and beyond. At some point I believe God will say, "I've made my point," and the amazing ratio relationships will cease. But in the meantime, it is worthwhile, I believe, to project what the possible tops and bottoms might be in 2005 based upon this pattern's continuance.

Back in the spring of 2004, we projected likely tops and bottoms for the rest of 2004 based upon this formula. We accurately forecast June 23, 2004's turn, September 7th, 2004's turn, October 25th, 2004's turn, and November 18th, 2004's turn to the exact day! We failed to see August 12th, 2004's turn and December 28th, 2004's turn mainly because we assumed this phi ratio relationship was based upon only prior major tops and bottoms. We didn't project future turns based upon minor tops and bottoms of the past. The point is, since this golden ratio has been consistent so far during this Bear market in the DJIA, it is therefore logical to extrapolate this phi ratio into the future in order to determine high probability bifurcation points - future tops or bottoms.

The next significant Fibonacci phi mate turn date window is upon us, the four trading days of May 6th, May 9th, May 10th, or May 11th, 2005 +/- a day. The best mathematical fit is May 10th. This should be a significant turn, and it is looking like it could be a top, Minuette degree ii up of Minor 1 down. Here's the math for the May 10th, 2005 phi mate turn date: 5/10/05 is 1,337 trading days from 1/14/2000. 1/29/02 is 511 trading days from 1/14/00. 5/10/05 is 826 trading days from 1/29/02's bottom. 511 / 1,337 = .382, and 826 / 1,337 = .618.

After that, the next Fibonacci phi mate turn date window is May 25th through May 28th (+/- a day). We can't be sure if it will be a top or bottom at this point. This should be a significant turn date at the end of May because in addition to the phi mate turn window, there is also a cluster of eight previous tops or bottoms that are an exact Fibonacci number of trading days from the end of May turn window period 5/19/05 to 5/31/05. Here they are, color coordinated with the chart above:

4/20/05 is a Fibonacci 21 trading days from 5/27/05.
4/1/05 is a Fibonacci 34 trading days from 5/19/05.
3/4/05 is a Fibonacci 55 trading days from 5/23/05.
1/24/05 is a Fibonacci 89 trading days from 5/31/05.
10/25/04 is a Fibonacci 144 trading days from 5/20/05.
6/23/04 is a Fibonacci 233 trading days from 5/25/05.
11/20/05 is a Fibonacci 377 trading days from 5/23/05.
12/27/05 is a Fibonacci 610 trading days from 5/31/05.

Our Percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average indicator continues to creep toward an overbought extreme, hitting 60.00 Friday. It would not surprise us if it fails to reach 80.00 before the next turn lower. That would continue a pattern of lower highs since November 2004, consistent with a Bear market decline.

Both the percent above 10 day and 5 day indicators declined from extreme overbought readings of 90.00 a few days ago. The 10 day indicator often hits extremes several days before prices peak, creating positive and negative divergences. It looks to be suggesting a top over the next few days.

The 14 day stochastic saw its Fast indicator retreat to slightly below the Slow indicator. Because it did not cross decisively below the Slow, we did not get a "sell" signal. However, what we can say is that the rally that began three weeks ago is losing momentum. We should keep careful watch over this indicator as once the Fast crosses under the Slow by ten points, we will have a signal that the next leg of the Bear is underway.

At the top of the next page we show the 10 Day Average Call/Put Ratio. This is a contrary sentiment gauge. Friday's reading comes in at 1.04. Because it has not risen decisively above the extreme bottom reading of 1.00, it has not yet given us an all clear "buy" signal. This indicates to us that there could be more downside to the decline from March 7th before a sustainable rally unfolds.

At the top of page 10, we show a chart of the Dow Industrials that sports a Bearish "M" top pattern from November 2004 through today. These patterns are a rare form of a Double Top. Once prices break below 10,000, the pattern will be confirmed. Over a similar time horizon is the bottom chart, also showing a Bearish intermediate-term topping pattern in the Dow Industrials, a large Rising Bearish Wedge from back in August 2004 through March 2005. It has a downside target of 9,708, the point of the start of the pattern, on October 25th, 2004.

On page 11, we show the wave count for the DJIA (courtesy of using an hourly chart since March 1st, 2005. Minuette wave i down completed on April 20th. From there, prices traced out a rare 3-3-5 Flat pattern for Minuette wave ii, that also is a Rising Bearish Wedge formation. Near the point of trend-line convergence, prices usually spike above the upper boundary. That final thrust higher looks to be all that is needed to complete this pattern, which coincides nicely with the 3-3-5 Flat pattern as the "y" wave only needs one more thrust higher as well to complete, a final wave "e" up. That should come over the next three trading days, topping inside our Fibonacci phi mate turn window.

Inside the "y" wave, wave "d" formed a continuation triangle pattern, which neatly offers an alternate pattern to the "b" wave inside "y", which was a zigzag. This follows the guideline of alternation where the second and fourth waves of a five wave sequence sport different corrective patterns.

Wave ii has retraced a little over 38.2 percent of i as of Friday, May 6th. Should the final thrust higher seek a Fibonacci target, two options are the .500 retrace level at 10,492, and the .618 retrace level of 10,608. We believe 10,492 is a more acceptable target, and would not be surprised if further upside fell a little short of that.

Once the top is in, next should be a severe decline, Minuette wave iii down. Wave threes usually extend, so we can estimate the decline to be at least 1.382 times wave i, which would take us to the 9,100ish area should prices top around 10,450ish. Since wave i down took 31 trading days, it is likely that wave iii down will take longer than that. If so, it means our next Fibonacci turn window may only mark the end of the first one or two waves of the five that eventually comprise iii down. Or, if the decline from here is steep, it is possible that iii could complete by that end-of-May turn window.

The above chart shows that the S&P 500 has two Bearish patterns that have identical minimum downside targets of 1,110 - a Bear Flag and a Head & Shoulders top. The wave count is similar as for the Dow Industrials. Prices have met resistance at the point of convergence between the 50 day moving average and the upper boundary of the declining trend-channel. The rally from April 20th has formed a Rising Bearish Wedge, indicating it is about over. The minimum downside for this pattern is the point of its origin, around 1,140.

Trannies, shown on page 13, have broken decisively below their long-term rising trendchannel, and their 50 day moving average. The 200 day has provided support. Upon close inspection of the short-term pattern, the Elliott Wave count is similar to the Dow Industrials, with a 3-3-5 Flat pattern unfolding for the Minuette wave ii corrective rally, a Rising Bearish Wedge that looks close to topping.

The NASDAQ 100 shows Submicro degree wave {2} up ended by reaching within one point of a Fibonacci .500 retrace of wave {1} on Friday morning, 4/8/05 at 1,503.21, then declined impulsively, bottoming into {i} at 1,405.09 on April 18th. A countertrend rally labeled as Nano degree wave {ii} has since unfolded as a 3-3-5, (w, x, y) flat, with a bit more upside needed to complete the pattern. This count was the alternate count on Wednesday. Since prices rose Friday above 1,458 on an intraday basis, it is now our top count since under Elliott rules, a wave four cannot enter the territory of a same degree wave one. So we have four pairs of descending waves one-down and two-up, of different degrees. Once the wave threes arrive for all these pairs, we could see a near vertical descent.

As we back and forth lower, it is important to keep in mind how many more waves lower of varying degrees lie ahead of us here. The answer is several - a whole series of threes, fours and fives - and that is just for Minor degree 1 down. As far as the big picture is concerned, we are merely starting a huge move lower.

Over the short-term, how low are we going? Well, if Minuette wave iii extends, then 1.382 times the length of wave i puts the $NDX at 1,345. If wave iii equals 1.618 times wave i, then we're looking at 1,311. This is a big drop underway, but will include a series of minor corrections along the plunge.

The Economy:

The Commerce Department reported this week that Construction Spending increased 0.5 percent in March, hitting a record high.

Factory Orders barely rose, up a mere 0.1 percent in March according to Commerce. They revised February's number from up 0.2 percent to down a wretched 0.5 percent. Of course the permabull financial media's headlines read, "March Factory Orders Rise." No headlines about the horrid revision.

The Institute of Supply Management announced its index of Manufacturing Activity fell to 53.3 in April from 55.2 in March. Readings below 50 signal contraction. Unfortunately, it's getting close.

The big show this week, was the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting where the Fed raised short-term interest rates again, an eighth consecutive quarter-point increase to 3.00 percent. The markets didn't like this, and equities fell sharply after the announcement. The Master Planners didn't like the response, said, "No problem, we can fix the markets," and promptly changed their statement about the decision. Like obedient sheep, markets accepted the revised, more soothing wording of the Fed and promptly reversed course and rallied. Their original statement said, "Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident." With intent to manipulate equities higher, the Fed then reversed course and just before the close on Tuesday, changed the statement to say, inflation expectations were "well contained." So which is it? Doesn't matter as long as equities and real estate go up. This is moral relativism, pure and simple, the new religion of America. If it works for you, its right. Meanwhile they pump and they pump and they devalue the Dollar. There will be a day we pay for this, but not to worry, it should occur long after the Maestro retires. He'll be fine.

The U.S. Treasury announced it would explore the possibility of issuing new 30 year Bonds.

Now from the Labor Department. They reported that Productivity rose at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent. This figure grows from applied technological development, but also from declining job growth. So it's a two-edged sword. On Friday, the Labor Department announced that non-farm payrolls grew 274,000 in April. They also bumped up March's figure, and February's, by about another 100,000. It is truly amazing how every time equities look to be about to waterfall, you can count on two things occurring from the Master Planners: M-3 growth goes double digits, and Labor comes out with fantastic jobs numbers. Its like clockwork. Friday's non-farm payroll jobs figures contradicted Thursday's Jobless Claims figures, also from Labor. On Thursday, Labor announced that Jobless Claims rose again, up to 333,000 for the week ended April 23rd. Now, just what sort of jobs are inside that robust non-farm payroll figure? Are they family-supporting jobs? The want ads aren't improving. Still not a lot of family supporting jobs (six figures) listed. Hmmm.

The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that employers announced another 57,000 job cuts in April, according to a Reuters story published on That does not include IBM's 13,000 cuts announced this week.

Money Supply, the Dollar and Gold:

The Federal Reserve is flooding the economy with liquidity. They do this when risks of market declines are at their highest. It looks like they've had enough of this equity market slide as they boosted M-3 another 19.1 billion this past week (a 10.36% annualized rate of growth). For the past two weeks, they have increased M-3 a whopping $73.2 billion (that's a 19.97 percent annualized growth rate). Over the past six weeks, M-3 is up $105.2 billion (a 9.59% rate of growth). Now does that sound like a Fed the least bit worried about inflation? The left hand grabs the eye with staged announcements of another inflation-fighting quarter point measured interest rate increase, even creates a little controversy with language changes to really steal our attention, while the right hand pumps and pumps and pumps like the black hole of deflation is knocking at the door. The Maestro is quite the magician. Good for Gold, bad for the Dollar.

M-3 can grow from two sources, the money multiplier (velocity of money from economic growth) and from the Fed literally printing the stuff. But regardless of how it grows, the Fed has absolute power over the quantity of money that sits in the economy at any given time. If there is too much, they pull it out by selling their inventory of U.S. Treasuries to investment banking houses in exchange for money (deposits at banks). If there is too little, they buy securities in exchange for money they print. They also can slow the velocity of money growth by changing margin and reserve requirements. So when we mention the Fed increased M-3, we are saying they allowed it or directly caused it, but the end result is an acceptable targeted level by the Fed, one way or the other.

The trade-weighted US Dollar is breaking south from an Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern (a.k.a. Rising Bearish Wedge) - a typical termination pattern - that formed Micro degree wave 5 of Minuette c of Minor 4 up. The Dollar should be on its way to a retest of its recent lows, a test of 80.00. The decline should proceed in five-wave, stair-step fashion, with the move from April 14th's 85.32 to April 22nd's 83.36 a Micro degree wave 1, and the current move up a Minor degree wave 2, eventually dropping to a primary degree wave (1) sustainable bottom, to be followed by a multi-month A-B-C corrective rally for Primary degree wave (2).

Gold is shown above, courtesy of We await a breakout in Gold either to the top boundary of the Rising Bearish Wedge, or to below the lower boundary of both the Rising Bearish Wedge and the long-term rising trend-channel. Rising Bearish Wedges tend to correct to the beginning of the pattern, which in this case is around 375ish. However, should the Fed continue to pump money into the system - which they are doing - then the correction in Gold could be quite shallow, take on the form of an Elliott Wave "flat" pattern, possibly the shape of a triangle with lots of overlapping waves - or delayed. Short-term, it is difficult to say whether Gold has topped or not. March 11th, 2005 may have been the top.

But there is room for Gold to rise to - and perhaps slightly above - the upper boundary of the Rising Bearish Wedge, to 460-465ish. Inside the Rising Bearish Wedge, Gold has recently formed a continuation Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, which increases the odds Gold will peak toward 465 before falling.

The top of the previous page shows our highest probability scenario for Silverin the intermediate term. A Symmetrical Triangle has formed, that is a continuation pattern, portending higher prices ahead. The Triangle would be an Intermediate degree wave 4, to be followed by one more sharp thrust higher to complete primary degree wave (1). That would be followed by an A-B-C Intermediate degree decline that could last several months. The second chart on the prior page shows the second scenario that is possible, that being wave (1) topped on December 2, 2004 at 8.17, a truncated Intermediate degree wave 5 following a Rising Bearish Wedge. If prices bust below 6.80, this scenario is occurring.

Oil. After selling off 12 percent from its high of 58.10 March 17th, to 51.01 on April 18th, prices rebounded to 55.90 last Friday for Minor degree waves 1 down and 2 up of the "A" portion of an A-B-C correction. Prices topped March 17th by forming an Ending Diagonal Triangle (a.k.a. Rising Bearish Wedge) pattern for Intermediate degree wave 5 of Primary (1). The Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern suggests prices will decline to the point where the Wedge started, in this case to the low 40s.

The HUI (shown at the top of the next page) is tracing out a classic Gartley pattern, with a downside target around the 150 area. However, ironically, this pattern is a Bullish pattern. What that means is, once prices correct to the 150 area, it is off to the races as a very nice Bull run begins again.

The bottom chart on the next page (courtesy shows a confirmed Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern for the HUI, increasing the odds that more significant downside is coming, with a minimum downside target nearly the same as the Gartley pattern suggests, driving prices to as low as 152ish.

And using a third tool for the HUI, the Elliott Wave analysis, we see that waves iii through v should carry prices much lower to their wave C bottom. Where might C of 2bottom? Based upon the Elliott Wave count, a 38.2 percent retrace of Intermediate degree wave 1's rally from 35.31 on November 16th, 2000 to 258.02 on January 6th, 2004 suggests a bottom for the current Intermediate degree wave 2 decline of 172.94 (almost got there). A 50 percent retrace takes prices to 146.67. Interestingly, should Minor degree C end up equal to Minor degree A, that would suggest a bottom of 154, very near the H&S and Gartley targets. After the carnage, we should be at the bottom of Minor degree C of 2, to be followed by a powerful rally for several months or even years, Intermediate degree wave 3, probably in response to more Dollar devaluation.

10 Year Treasury Note Yields are shown above. There are two patterns that carry equal weight at this time, that are diametrically opposed to each other. Sometimes patterns offer crystal clear insights into the probable path for markets. Sometimes they do not. This is one of those "do not" times. There is a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, a continuation pattern, that suggests yields should rise sharply once they bust above the upper boundary of the Triangle, in the case of this chart, above 45 (4.50%).

There is an equally compelling pattern developed over a similar time frame that suggests yields should fall to the 30 (3.00%) area. This Head & Shoulders pattern is not yet confirmed, and until it is, the probability is not as strong. For confirmation of this pattern, yields must drop decisively below the neckline, below 40 (4.00%). So call it 50/50. However, prices move inversely to yields, and the chart at the top of the next page analyzes Bond prices, offering more insight into the future direction of prices and yields.

U.S. Bonds are retracing the impulsive decline since topping at 117.0 on February 9th and declining to 109.0 on March 23rd. Prices hit the .786 retrace intraday Friday, April 29th, then backed off, perhaps the top of Minuette ii. We can count an "a" up and "b" down, and a completed wave "c" up since March 23rd. This rally should be over. Much more rally from here negates the Bearish Head & Shoulders and forces us back to the drawing board with our Elliott Wave count. Repeat, Bonds must decline from here or this economy is in very serious trouble. More upside from here means Bonds are forecasting deflation, ergo, recession.

If our EW count and the H&S pattern are correct, as shown above, then Bonds are poised to plummet to 100. Over the past several weeks (not shown here, but visit the archives and check out issue no. 154) we've been showing a long-term chart of Bonds that identifies a massive Bearish Head & Shoulders top. Concerning is that should prices break decisively below 100, that would confirm the pattern, and increase the probability that the pattern's minimum downside target of 79 would be reached.

The yield curve is flattening, often a precursor to recession. If the Fed goes nuts pumping liquidity into the system to stave off a recession, that will push Bond prices lower - unless the Fed pumps liquidity by buying the long end of the yield curve with newly created Dollars. What happens to Bonds over the next several weeks should be fascinating, as they will likely tell us where the economy's fate lies.

Bottom Line: Equities should put in a top this week, then a sharp decline should follow, in stair-step fashion. Caution is warranted.

"For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord,
Plans for welfare and not for calamity to give you a future and a hope.
Then you will call upon Me and come and pray to Me
And I will listen to you.
And you will seek Me and find Me,
When you search for me with all of your heart.
And I will be found by you, declares the Lord,
And I will restore your fortunes."

Jeremiah 29:11-14

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As the Bear market resumes, don't be without the latest charts and analyses to help steer you clear of danger.

Key Economic Statistics
Date VIX Dec. U.S. $ Euro CRB Gold Silver Crude Oil 1 Week Avg.
11/12/04 13.21 83.33 130.39 288.50 445.1 7.66 46.84 9374.3 b
11/19/04 13.50 83.32 130.13 287.25 447.0 7.60 48.44 9372.7 b
11/26/04 12.78 81.81 132.93 288.75 449.5 7.59 49.44 9391.0 b
12/03/04 12.96 80.98 134.53 284.75 456.0 7.99 42.54 9404.1 b
12/10/04 12.66 82.59 132.36 276.25 435.4 6.74 40.71 9414.8 b
12/17/04 11.95 82.20 132.90 285.25 442.9 6.80 46.28 9430.4 b
12/22/04 11.45 82.01 134.06 282.50 441.4 6.93 44.24 9435.7 b
1/07/05 13.49 83.72 130.62 279.25 419.5 6.44 45.43 9463.4 b
1/14/05 12.43 81.13 131.03 283.22 423.0 6.59 48.38 9449.0 b
1/21/05 14.36 83.34 130.60 281.85 426.9 6.81 48.53 9487.4 b
1/28/05 13.24 83.53 130.48 282.50 425.8 6.79 47.18 9504.3 b
2/04/05 11.21 84.25 128.79 281.00 415.9 6.63 46.48 9528.1 b
2/11/05 11.43 84.58 128.80 286.18 420.9 7.20 47.80 9504.9 b
2/18/05 11.18 83.52 130.75 289.75 428.4 7.41 48.35 9481.0 b
2/25/05 11.49 82.65 132.43 298.30 436.2 7.29 51.49 9525.2 b
3/04/05 11.94 82.49 132.66 309.16 435.1 7.34 53.78 9539.1 b
3/11/05 13.19 81.57 134.41 319.00 444.2 7.49 56.46 9512.2 b
3/18/05 13.14 82.10 133.38 316.50 439.7 7.43 57.24 9499.5 b
3/24/05 13.42 84.11 129.80 306.75 424.8 6.98 54.84 9517.1 b
4/01/05 14.09 84.42 128.29 311.25 425.9 7.00 57.27 9552.0 b
4/08/05 12.62 84.41 129.46 304.32 428.8 7.16 53.32 9532.7 b
4/15/05 17.74 84.50 129.28 301.25 426.5 7.02 50.43 9531.5 b
4/22/05 15.38 83.45 130.81 307.75 435.6 7.32 55.39 9585.6 b
4/29/05 15.31 84.42 128.74 303.70 436.1 6.94 49.72 9604.7 b
5/06/05 14.05 84.59 126.29 301.00 426.9 6.96 50.96 -

Note: VIX, Euro, CRB, Gold down. Oil is up.


Robert McHugh

Author: Robert McHugh

Robert D. McHugh, Jr. Ph.D.
Main Line Investors, Inc.

Robert McHugh

Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at The statements, opinions and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

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