Elliott Wave on Gold and Silver: Triangle Breakout

By: Dan Stinson | Fri, May 13, 2005
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Short Term Forecast - The last newsletter included a chart for Silver in a triangle pattern. We have followed the price action into to the apex of the triangle awaiting the breakout. We have also been watching Gold in the same triangle pattern for the past few months as well. Gold had a bearish breakout of the triangle today, while Silver is close to breaking down as well. Many Silver stocks in triangles broke to the downside in late April, suggesting then, that Gold and Silver would follow. In the last newsletter, we were expecting a possible breakout to the upside for the triangle pattern, but our subsequent analysis determined a bearish breakout was likely. The breakdown of Gold and Silver stock triangles in April supported the bearish breakout. Capital preservation has been key, while we have watched the action from the side lines as the action played out within the triangles. We now have confirmed the triangle breakout for Gold and expect Silver to follow soon. We will now monitor the current downside of the metals and the USD rally and look for future opportunities. These triangles represent a large B wave pattern that should be followed by 5 waves down in wave C, before the next rally. This C wave also corresponds with the current rally in the USD, so it should become clear before the next reversal. This ABC wave count for Gold and Silver is also a corrective pattern indicating further substantial upside to follow.

The downside for Gold and Silver could be counted as wave 3 of (3) but the triangle counts are clear and we have been able to forecast every bounce off the trendline as the waves played out.

Capital preservation has been key as we await the next substantial buying opportunity.
The following paragraph was copied from the last newsletter.
These charts are only a guide so that you can follow the action and watch for the potential breakout. The action could play out exactly as illustrated or it may need adjustments as we follow it through. The action could also negate the triangle count all together, but it allows us to focus on a likely outcome as illustrated above. Triangles can break to the upside or to the downside, so these charts should also assist to keep us on the right side of the play.

The identification of the triangles and subsequent analysis has kept us on the right side of the market. If you are interested in viewing these updated charts and other detailed charts with targets on a daily basis, please see the registration details below.

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Happy Trading!!!


Dan Stinson

Author: Dan Stinson

Dan Stinson
Elliott Wave Chart Site

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