Playing Another Hand of Existential Poker

By: Erik Swarts | Thu, Dec 5, 2013
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"Do the times make the man - or does the man make the times?"

1980-1983 SPX versus 2008-2013 Shanghai
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Yen GDX Chart from weekly data
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USDX 1994 versus USDX 2013 (weekly)
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If we're reading the rules correctly, at this point in this existential zero sum game of disinflation, deflation and reflation - both Xi's manifesto and Bernanke and Yellen's taper talk - trump Shinzo's Abenomics.

For those not following at home:

Generally speaking, while we recognize the significance of having a commanding face to the story, we're more in the, "Times make the man" camp. With that said, we're happy to report our better halves will soon be represented at the monetary pulpit, but will also likely receive both unwarranted praise and criticism.

Hopefully for Dr. Yellen she receives the Volcker treatment.

2008-2009 Shanghai versus 2008-2013 Shanghai (Daily)
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2009 Emerging Market Equities (EEM) versus 2013 Gold (GLD) - Daily
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2009 Gold (GLD) versus 2013 Emerging Market Equitites (EEM) - Daily
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2009 TIP versus 2013 TIP - Daily
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2009 EEM:TIP versus 2013 GLD:TIP - Daily
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Australian Dollar 2008-2009 versus 2013-2014 - Daily
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2009 Silver versus 2013 Australian Dollar - Daily
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2009 Australian Dollar versus 2013 Silver (SLV) - Daily
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Erik Swarts

Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

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Source: The Contrarian Take