BluePrint 2014

By: Ken Darby | Tue, Dec 10, 2013
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Study market history. The basics of investing don't change. People's behaviors around money don't change. Past bull and bear markets may help point to possible present outcomes.

current OEW chart- Cycle bull wave [3]: approximately 2016-2034
current OEW chart- Cycle bull wave [3]: approximately 2016-2034

OEW will give us the degree of waves with a overall rough market road map. OEW hopefully will give us better information on anticipating a general outline (not necessarily always correct) of possible market outcomes. We can then incorporate the secular markets and see how they may fit within the Objective Elliott Wave framework. The smaller (bull & bear cycles) also fit into and are part of the general schematic. Adding your understanding of the inter-market analysis & supporting data gives you the finished draft. Monitor the market using OEW, moving averages & accompanying technical indicators to adjust as needed. Our strategy as per OEW is to anticipate, monitor, adjust.

There has been three cyclical bear markets of at least 20% in most of the previous secular bears, when looking back on the secular bear average length......We project one more bear market to complete the secular bear cycle and then the start of a new 17 year secular bull stock market.

Secular Cycles



At the time of this post we are still in Primary II. Adding all the factors up (age of current cyclical bull etc...) we think we may see the end of the bull market towards the end of 2014 maybe into 2015. We are do for a 10% or more correction, and another run up which should end the cyclical bull. Next would be one more cyclical bear market to end the secular bear cycle. We don't like to forecast time frames but that is our best guess-estimate. The money printing is extending the bull run up.

Here are some key areas to watch:

Inflation, housing, shipping, unemployment. The yield curve has been a very telling forecast for the economy.... Economic Risk Index. Stocks may be getting closer to being over bullish. Bond prices are going to be dropping further into a secular bear market. The supporting data (longer term trends and key indicators) are valuable for spotting primary trend changes. You don't have to know how to count OEW. Valuations are high but may last for long period of times. Consumer sentiment. Then...

  1. Start with daily price and supporting charts review.
  2. Weekly price & indicators is where you will get the first hint in possible intermediate to longer-term time frame changes.
  3. Monthly outlook or Risk Models... Advisor



Ken Darby

Author: Ken Darby

Ken Darby
The Risk-Reward Market Report

Perhaps the most important part in any decision, is asking the right questions.

No one method is necessarily right for everybody. Personally we don't like to put all of our eggs into one basket and don't rely on others for advice. Most money advisers don't actively manage your portfolio to protect you from downturns in the market. Individuals must be pro-active in managing their own retirement savings. We employ 2 different portfolio strategies, with about 1/2 divided into each portfolio strategy.

1.) Dividend Investing -- Any stock we purchase for dividends or asset allocation should be value driven. Our dividend stocks are also classified to an asset allocation strategy, along with others like energy, small cap, BRIC, gold, mlps etc.........diversification improves risk/return profile.

2.) Investing in the leading strength ETF sectors-- Buy low with the market trend -- sell higher with the trend. Then we buy a bear ETF for protection on the way down. Another option is to stay in cash on market down turns. (if you know how to do options, then go for it.)

IMHO using these strategies will help hedge against a downturn.

Our #1 priority is to preserve capital!

Per Warren Buffet

1. "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No1.

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Source: The Contrarian Take