Gold - The Weekly Global Perspective

By: Julian D. W. Phillips | Fri, Jun 10, 2005
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HIGHLIGHTS in "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster"
Features Below: -
- Greenspan Warns Hedge Funds.
- I.M.F. Gold Sales.
- Falling Euro & Gold.
- Treasuries & Greenspan's Conundrum.
- Prospects for the Yuan.
- $50+ Oil again!
- Technical Analysis U.S.$ - CRB - Copper - DJIA
- The present Gold Price Drivers.
- International Gold Markets.
- Silver - Platinum

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The Global view is the professional picture!
The world of gold is at one and the same time, parochial in its demand and supply and yet global, in its demand and supply. We try to synthesise these aspects to gain perspective and insight on the Gold and Silver and Platinum prices. A simple $/Gold view of the gold market is insufficient to a professional understanding of the gold market. It is important that through the global view of gold, the gold price in different gold-important currencies could be understood from both a fundamental and a Technical point of view.

This summary is produced each week in the "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster". This shows how gold is well supported. [We will not be reproducing it here in the future]: -

Today's Gold Price - Drivers

In the "climate" created by the global macro-economic view, we see strong reactions from the direct influences on gold.

Greenspan warns Hedge Funds!
Greenspan gave a strong warning to operators of large hedge funds, which are investment vehicles for wealthy individuals. He warned that most of the "low hanging fruit of readily available profits has already been picked." Clearly there is a point at which the gaining of high returns requires greater risks. Greater risks bring the potential for great losses. Should one or two of these funds fall foul of such losses there is a large possibility that there will be a pull away from the bulk of them.

Greenspan left the industry in no doubt as to what he meant when he said hedge fund managers who feel driven to continue pursuing above-average returns may encounter risks to their investments that will result in setbacks for the hedge fund industry. Consequently, after its recent very rapid advance, the hedge fund industry could temporarily shrink and many wealthy fund managers and investors could become less wealthy, Greenspan counselled. It seems to be a matter of time then?

Whilst these funds do precipitate a lot of action, they can and do cloud the real picture below the surface. They even act in many cases solely on the Technical pictures and do get it wrong from time to time. They increase volatility and risk to other participants in the market.

But as you can see from the table in the preceding article, their weight can be overwhelming even on the largest of markets. Depending on whether they are 'short' or 'long' in a particular market, their departure will move prices heavily, irrespective of the underlying fundamentals in the short term, were they to depart.

Indian Monsoon has arrived
The rains hit Kerala on the 6th of June. India had been expecting them a week earlier, but this caused no drop in expectations for a good monsoon and to say that they are on time. Hopefully they will persist to give a good harvest this year. Should they do so we expect to see the demand for gold from India, at or above previous record levels.

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Julian  D. W. Phillips

Author: Julian D. W. Phillips

Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster

Julian D. W. Phillips

"Global Watch: The Gold Forecaster" covers the global gold market. It specializes in Central Bank Sales and details, the Indian Bullion market [supported by a leading Indian Bullion professional], the South African markets [+ Gold shares shares] plus the currencies of gold producers [ Euro, U.S. $, Yen, C$, A$, and the South African Rand]. Its aim is to synthesise all the influential gold price factors across the globe, so as to truly understand the global reasons behind the gold price.

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