Point of Order - Are You Listening?

By: Greg Miller | Sat, Jun 11, 2005
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Opening Whisper

Definition: "point of order" - A question as to whether the present proceedings are in order or allowed by the rules of parliamentary procedure.

This week's proceedings in the halls of Congress have caused us to raise a point of order with Chairman Greenspan. Exactly when WILL you know why the bond market is in this conundrum? Are we to assume that it will only be crystal clear after-the-fact? Why are the longer dated treasury yields not rising with the short end rates? Only the historians will get it correct, but the Chairman is clueless at this point in time. I did hear his explanation of the basis of yield on the 10-year note as regards the various maturity dates and I really did not understand it. Was that explanation supposed to be helpful? Did he say that the relative yield on the 10-year had actually strengthened? Relative to what? Certainly not relative to the 3-month T-bill! It's no wonder that I stick to safe and sound technical trend analysis. I might otherwise be confused.

The equity markets gave back some of the momentum gains of the last 6 weeks. Is the momentum fading or is this pullback just part of the natural order of rallies and retracements? The major risk is definitely on the downside since this latest rally seems to have been due only to the updated and increased Q1 estimated GDP and the prospects for rising earnings reports for the second quarter. It has been led by Nasdaq technology which has given up some relative strength again this week.

The S&P 500 would need to hold the 1185 level and the NDX would need to see support at the 1500-ish level to have an orderly retracement before heading higher once again. A dramatic decline below those levels would signal a breakdown of the natural Fibonacci support level. Next week is equity options expiration week and we will be getting PPI, CPI, manufacturing and other important economic insights. Has manufacturing and capacity utilization slowed again this past month? Volatility is likely to increase as we get into the econ data of next week.

We seem to be once again at that inflection point, that no-man's land where the momentum indicators are advising that the markets are not "keeping up" with the recent upward acceleration. Next week should raise a "critical point of order" from which we might get an idea of where the proceedings are going. Is the summer rally over or are we to get another leg up?

Our Trading System - What The Numbers Are Telling Us

Our system model has lost one of its fast indicator buy signals this week. The StochRSI rolled over to a sell signal. The rest remain on buy, but the Slow STO is likely to fall next week unless the market gets off to a significant rally on Monday. Looking closely at our NDX model it looks like a buy, buy smells like a sell. Our MACD did strengthen this week.

When we get into this neutral zone on the model, we have to look at other indicators to give us advice on whether we should stick with the buy signal or just be safe and go to cash for a week. The volume has NOT been heavy or accelerating. That's one clue that tells us that the rally may be overdone. The NDX/SPX relative strength ratio has faded again this week. That's a second clue. For more clues see the current sentiment section below.


NDX - 6 month Chart Model - Friday June 10, 2005

Our buy signal has been out of sync with the market this week. As we know, this must happen at changes in trend. Just as in any electronic feedback control system, our trend following system relies on negative feedback inputs to get error corrections which then get our model moving again in the corrected trend direction. At this time, the negative inputs are not sufficient to trigger a new signal.

What Is The Current Sentiment?

The Semiconductor/NDX ratio tells us that the semi's are trying to lead the tech rally higher. The semiconductors are outperforming (see chart below) and could lead us higher or at least keep the market afloat in an options expiration week. Options open interest also appears to lend support to keeping the market from falling dramatically.


3 year Weekly Semiconductor / NDX Relative Strength Ratio

The CBOE Put/Call Ratio (symbol $CPC) and Nasdaq Summation index ($NASI) charts are still bullish on this week's charts. (No charts shown)

What about the relative strength of the EU markets versus the U.S.? The chart below shows that the French CAC has strengthened relative to the S&P 500. The FTSE and DAX markets show similar trends. How can this be true if the EU is moving toward recession? Is this relative strength due to the dollar rally? Will euros start moving into the U.S. equities market from Europe if the dollar holds up and EU stocks begin to lose some value? A change in this trend could provide a boost to US equities.


3 Year Monthly CAC / SPX Relative Strength

Where Do We Go From Here and How To Listen For the Next Signal?

Our weekly MACD buy signal has strengthened slightly on a down week. The daily stochastic on the NDX is not quite yet in oversold territory so we could have some more downside next week. We need to hold the 1500 level as our stop exit point at which we will go to cash pending better visibility on the next trend leg.

Market Listener Trend Timing Summary
Current Signal: 100% BUY (Bought RYVYX Velocity 100)
Conservative investors may want to begin to take some profit by reducing their positions in RYVYX Velocity 100 or go completely to cash while we watch for a more definite signal.

Exit (Stop) Signal for Week of June 13 (fixed stop):

Go to 100% CASH on NDX Daily Close below 1500.

The Market is challenging our system model! Keep listening?

The Market Listener Indicators
(YTD Gain/Loss with RYVYX & RYVNX = +20.49% as of June 10 Close)

Week Ending  Slo. Stoch.   StochRSI   MACD   ROC   ML Signal1 
June 10, 2005 Buy Sell Buy Buy Buy
June 03, 2005 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
May 27, 2005 Buy Buy Sell++ Buy Buy
May 20, 2005 Buy Buy Sell++ Buy Buy
May 13, 2005 Buy Buy Sell++ Buy Buy
May 06, 2005 Buy Buy Sell+ Buy CASH
Apr 29, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Apr 22, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Apr 15, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Apr 08, 2005 Sell Sell+ Sell Sell Sell
Apr 01, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Mar 24, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Mar 18, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Mar 11, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Mar 04, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell+ Sell
Feb 25, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Feb 18, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Feb 11, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Feb 04, 2005 Sell Cash Sell Sell Cash
Jan 28, 2005 Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Jan 21, 2005 Sell Sell Buy- Sell Sell
Jan 14, 2005 Sell Sell Buy Sell Sell
Jan 07, 2005 Buy Sell Buy Sell Sell
Dec 31, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Sell Cash
Dec 23, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy- Buy
Dec 17, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Dec 10, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Dec 03, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Nov 26, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy- Buy
Nov 19, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Nov 12, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Nov 05, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Oct 29, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
Oct 22, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy- Buy
Oct 15, 2004 Buy Buy Buy Buy- Buy
Oct 08, 2004 Buy Buy Sell+ Buy Buy
1 This Market Listener signal is our base signal. The MACD is our primary weekly input, but can be "out-voted" by the other faster indicators on a daily basis when we need to go to cash to implement our Cash Safety Stop (CSS). You should not base your trading on this or any other single indicator or set of indicators. With Rydex Dynamic funds, we can trade in the morning and 5 minutes prior to the close during the trading day/week when I see that one or more of the fast signal indicators have changed signals. This is particularly important if I am going to a CASH position in order to preserve capital. The above table shows the results of the end-of-week, WEEKLY SYSTEM MODEL SIGNALS.

Listen To What He Says

NASB Romans 4:1 "What then shall we say that Abraham, our forefather according to the flesh, has found? For if Abraham was justified by works, he has something to boast about, but not before God. For what does the Scripture say? "ABRAHAM BELIEVED GOD, AND IT WAS CREDITED TO HIM AS RIGHTEOUSNESS". Now to the one who works, his wage is not credited as a favor, but as what is due. But to the one who does not work, but believes in Him who justifies the ungodly, his faith is credited as righteousness."

I am working on the art of listening and hope that you are also.

Links:
Rydex Funds: www.RydexFunds.com
Stock Charts: www.StockCharts.com


 

Greg Miller

Author: Greg Miller

Gregory W. Miller, P.E.
The Market Listener
An Educational Newsletter for Stock Market Trend Timers

Paid Subscribers receive mid-week alerts to market changes that impact our system. The alerts advise of changes in stop level or signal changes prior to the Friday close of trading.

The Market Listener Trading System - My adaptive trend following trading system is the result of years of mistakes. I always seemed to be zigging when I should be zagging. My investing was based too much on emotion and inputs from so many varied newsletters and methods. After what has been literally years of personal research into cycles, Elliott Waves, artificial intelligence and many other systems, I have learned that my own trading style is best handled by avoiding the "art" of prediction at all costs!!! When I looked at moving averages for indication of trend direction, it seemed that they too were always 180 degrees out of phase with what I should have done. My conclusion, after many losses and much frustration, is that I needed to keep it very simple and let the market tell me what it wanted to do. In particular, I wanted to follow the trend, which is your friend, until the market whispered, or shouted to me that it wanted to change directions. And then, I found that Stochastics and Rate of Change indicators help me go to cash until the trend reverses or continues. Thats how my trend following system & its cash management component developed. I trade Rydex Venture and Velocity funds by which I can go short (x2) or long (x2) the NDX (NASDAQ 100 Index). I hope my newsletter and its insights can give you an education on alternative investment strategies. You might find your own technique or modify mine.

Links:
Rydex Funds: www.RydexFunds.com
Stock Charts: www.StockCharts.com

About the Author: Gregory Miller is a registered Professional Engineer (PE) in the State of Texas. He has been involved in electrical engineering and projects in the U.S. and some far-flung regions of the world. Greg has studied the markets for decades and enjoys applying his analytical abilities and computer number crunching to the science of investing.

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