Dollar Looks Bullish - Elliott Wave Analysis

By: Gregor Horvat | Fri, Jan 17, 2014
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USD Index Weekly

Dollar Index is slow choppy and overlapping within two contracting trendlines for the last few years which we think it represents a triangle pattern, most likely placed in wave B) position. The reason is a five wave rally in wave A) from 2008 low which is first leg of a three wave A)-B)-C) recovery. As such, we will be looking up in wave C) after a completion of a triangle pattern. For now that's not the case yet, as we will need waves D and E before we may turn immediately bullish. In the next few weeks we however expect move up in wave D up to the upper trendline of the pattern.

USD Index Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

USD Index Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

USD Index Daily

We believe that USD Index has turned bullish after an impulsive rise from 79.00 at the start of November. This structure is important for a change in trend, even if just temporary. Based on a big picture with a triangle, we think that rise from 79.00 is start of a wave D that will unfold in three legs. If that is the case then recent downward move was wave (B) correction completed near 79.45. As such, move up in wave (C) seems to be underway towards 82.50-83.30 projected level.

USD Index Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

USD Index Daily Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

USD Index 4h

USD Index moved nicely to the upside, now trading very close to 81.30 so we are prepared for a strong push to the upside in wave 3, so we recently adjusted the count and labeled end of wave 2 at the latest swing low, at 80.50 . We still have alternate count on the radar screen for any surprise and another leg down to 80.40 before going up. In either case technical analysis for the USD is pointing up.

USD Index 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

USD Index 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart


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Gregor Horvat

Author: Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and His feature articles have been published on:,,, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory,,, etc. He recently won the award on for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At he helps clients and educate them about the Elliott wave prinicple and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time.  His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators.

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