The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Jan 25, 2014
Print Email

At the end of last year we observed that following the December FED meeting the SPX is poised to burst out of the '09 weekly channel. Liquidity peaked on the last day of 2013:

SPX Chart
Larger Image

and Friday's sell off brought the index back within the weekly channel with first support at 1750:

SPX Chart 2
Larger Image

From a sentiment point of view, weekly bullish sentiment is testing the 75% level which hasn't been violated since January '13. A further deterioration in bullish sentiment should coincide with the SPX testing the regression line:

SPX Chart 3
Larger Image

In the sentiment department, we also monitor the VIX which gave us a timely early warning signal preceding the 50+ point drop:

VIX Chart
Chart courtesy of OddsTrader

GLD is showing signs of reversal but will remain in a vulnerable position until it manages to climb and stay above the 50% retracement level:

SPDR Gold Trust Weekly Chart
Larger Image

SLV didn't fare as well, and remains confined within both downtrend channels:

iShares Silver Trust Weekly Chart
Larger Image



George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

Copyright © 2011-2017 George Krum

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright ©