The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Feb 8, 2014
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Looking at the monthly chart of the '94 - 2000, '02 - '07 and current rally, it becomes apparent that they follow a similar rate of ascent. From '98 to '00 there was an acceleration of that ascent, which lead to the peak in March 2000. Currently, the index finds itself in a very similar position, after advancing at the same angle and by the exact same percentage amount since the '09 trend began accelerating at the end of '11:

SPX Monthly Chart
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There's another similarity. Looking at the daily chart, the SPX just completed a retracement commensurate with the one from May - June '13:

SPX Daily Chart
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Whether this will mark the end of the '09 rally or just a pause in it will become evident fairly soon, depending on the ability of the SPX to climb above resistance at 1815 and 1850, or to break below the lower daily channel line.

The VIX system we mentioned last week switched to a buy signal at the open on Thursday, and after signaling the start of a 90+ point decline in January, is now trailing a 40+ point advance:

GSPC/VIX Chart
Chart courtesy of OddsTrader

Gold and silver continue to consolidate just above their recent lows but still remain trapped below strong resistance levels and within long-term downsloping channels:

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Monthly Chart
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iShares Silver Trust Monthly Chart
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George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps available from iTunes:

OddsTrader - uses the power of Hurst Channels to produce price and time targets, and combines them with proper risk and position size management.

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - is the first mobile app that gives users access to one of the most profitable and time tested hedge fund trading strategies.

OT Pivots - combines the power of Pivot lines with cycles and automatic signal generation.

Gann 9 - is the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

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