The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Feb 8, 2014
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Looking at the monthly chart of the '94 - 2000, '02 - '07 and current rally, it becomes apparent that they follow a similar rate of ascent. From '98 to '00 there was an acceleration of that ascent, which lead to the peak in March 2000. Currently, the index finds itself in a very similar position, after advancing at the same angle and by the exact same percentage amount since the '09 trend began accelerating at the end of '11:

SPX Monthly Chart
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There's another similarity. Looking at the daily chart, the SPX just completed a retracement commensurate with the one from May - June '13:

SPX Daily Chart
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Whether this will mark the end of the '09 rally or just a pause in it will become evident fairly soon, depending on the ability of the SPX to climb above resistance at 1815 and 1850, or to break below the lower daily channel line.

The VIX system we mentioned last week switched to a buy signal at the open on Thursday, and after signaling the start of a 90+ point decline in January, is now trailing a 40+ point advance:

GSPC/VIX Chart
Chart courtesy of OddsTrader

Gold and silver continue to consolidate just above their recent lows but still remain trapped below strong resistance levels and within long-term downsloping channels:

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Monthly Chart
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iShares Silver Trust Monthly Chart
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George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/