US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

By: Lara Iriarte | Thu, Feb 27, 2014
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Originally published 26th February, 2014.

Last analysis on 11th February expected overall upwards movement towards a target at 105.80.

Price has moved higher as expected, with sideways corrections along the way. The target has not yet been reached and the structure is incomplete. I am expecting more upwards movement.

I can now calculate the target at two wave degrees so it has widened to a small zone.

US Oil Daily Chart
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Minor wave 2 is most likely continuing as a flat correction. Minor wave 3 has not begun.

Within the expanded flat minute wave a subdivides easily as a three. Minute wave b is ambiguous. This wave count sees it as a three.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave b is a 106% correction of minute wave a so this is an expanded flat correction. Expanded flats normally have C waves which end substantially beyond the end of their A waves. At 105.80 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a, and minor wave 2 would be just above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

Within minute wave c there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii). At 107.63 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

We may now use Elliott's technique to draw a channel about minute wave c. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (iv) has very slightly overshot the channel, finding support about this trend line.

I expect minuette wave (v) to end either at the upper edge of this channel or with an overshoot of the upper edge.

I expect the target may be reached in about eight days.

US Oil Hourly Chart
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Minuette wave (iv) subdivides perfectly as an expanded flat correction. This shows nice structural alternation with the zigzag of minuette wave (ii).

The final fifth wave of minuette wave (v) has most likely begun. Within it subminuette wave ii is most likely to move lower because second wave corrections following leading diagonals in first wave positions are commonly very deep. It may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 101.04.



Lara Iriarte

Author: Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

Elliott wave is one of the more difficult and complicated technical analysis tools. When done right it can be uncannily accurate.

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally in 2009 to provide daily analysis of EURUSD and GBPUSD, then I began Elliott Wave Stock Market in 2010. Elliott Wave Gold began in August, 2013. Currently I provide daily analysis of Gold on this site, and daily analysis of the S&P 500 on Elliott Wave Stock Market for its members.

I have a science background (BSc) which has trained me to think logically and be evidence focussed. Over the years I have seen no market movement which does not fit into the clear and restrictive rules for Elliott wave structures.

I have members who are fund managers, institutional investors and professional traders.

If you want to learn how to apply the Elliott wave principle to any market my analysis service is designed to teach you, daily, how to do this.

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