Retail CRE: 225 Staple Store Closures

By: Gordon Long | Thu, Mar 6, 2014
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The Forecast Tsunami Now on the Horizon


It's Not That Easy Anymore!!


Strategic Investment Analysis - Macro Answers

Staples, the largest US office supplies retailer just announced:

"Our customers are using less office supplies..."

Expect more stock charts to soon look like today's Staples chart.

Staples Chart for March 6, 2014

Top Stories: A 'tsunami' of store closings seen hitting retail, Wal-Mart ups the ante on its big bet to go small, Consumers are shopping a new way--What it means


Video: Macro Situational Analysis

Charles Hugh Smith and I laid out the looming domino in the US Retail CRE (Commercial Real Estate) space 5 weeks ago. Even for those retailers unlike Staples, who can maintain sales, the domino is going to be due significantly to advancement of online and robotic technologies. The rapidly advancing ramifications are both startling and alarming.

Jobs being replaced by robots


Examples that are Underway

  1. Store Replacements: Redbox Model
  2. Instore Kiosks
  3. Applebee's "Waiter Terminator"
  4. Smoothies "Automated Dispensers"
  5. McDonalds's "Smart Restaurant"
  6. The "Brown Truck" Store


An 'Over-stored' America

The Retail building boom in America has created yet another bubble - The Stealth Retail CRE Bubble.

Permanent Slowdown?


Shadow Bank Financing

What few are aware is that the Shadow Banking system has 'morphed' since the 2008 financial crisis. Commercial Real Estate financing is presently seriously exposed to a crisis in short term funding disruptions, in a similar fashion to Residential Real Estate prior to the 2008 crisis. We have new instruments that will be the the new acronyms of the next financial crisis.


We Warned in November

Charles Hugh Smith and I additionally warned in November with: The Looming US Retail Implosion.

Video: Looming US Retail Implosion: An Urgent Re-Think Required!

We said:

"There is a looming US Retail implosion on the horizon and a complete re-think of the foundation of a 70% US Consumption Economy is urgently required. For thirty years analysts have predicted the demise of the US consumer. They were so consistently wrong that the mantra "Don't Bet Against the US Consumer" became a staple of investor wisdom, similar in reliability to "Don't Fight the Fed!".

The US Consumer as the engine of global growth has powering global credit creation and expansion as a result of the corresponding growth in US deficits . Now at 70% of the US economy, as compared to 50-55% for other developed economies and less than 35% for emerging economies, the question is no longer a matter of is it sustainable, but rather what will be the fallout now the inevitable has finally arrived?

It is clear the US consumer is tapped out a result of the US middle class being 'gutted' with job lose, low salaries, exploding healthcare & educations costs and pensions now an endangered species. However, our Monetary, Fiscal and Public Policies are only making matters worse.


Conclusions

Its Coming - Consider Yourself Warned,

Again!

 


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Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/