EURUSD Elliott Wave Outlook

By: Gregor Horvat | Thu, Mar 20, 2014
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The USD is on the move since yesterday when the FED said it would reduce its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion. The USD also recovered on hints from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that the bank could begin to raise interest rates sooner than anticipated.

Gold is moving down, S&P falling as well and USD is up against all other major currencies. Our focus today and tomorrow will be on EURUSD. A decline from 1.3966 March high is in three legs, and now we need to have to wait on important evidences, either to confirm a corrective retracememnt which would allow us to look for longs once the market bottoms or we wait more signs for a bearish impulse as this one is also one of the possibility. However, for a bearish case we would need to see further impulsive weakness down 1.3700/40, to make sure it's an extended wave (iii).

EURUSD count #1

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1-Hour Chart Count #1

EURUSD count #2

EURUSD Elliott Wave 1-Hour Chart Count #2

Bearish count has my special attention because of the S&P Futures that can revisit 1820 level from last week. EURUSD and S&P has positive correlation now; in fact EURUSD is even weaker than the S&P so if S&P will fall down, which is expected then EUR may lose even more value against the USD .

EURUSD vs S&P 1h

EURUSD vs S&P 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 


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Gregor Horvat

Author: Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat
www.ew-forecast.com

Gregor Horvat

Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of www.ew-forecast.com, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on: SafeHaven.com, FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At www.ew-forecast.com he helps clients and educate them about the Elliott wave prinicple and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time.  His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators.

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