Stress Testing Season: The Fed Stress Tests Banks and We Are Stress Testing Portfolios
There are any number of factors that can impact investment portfolios. Right now, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the mounting insolvency risks in China are high on many lists. However, interest rates in the US are really big factors that we must all consider.
The Fed may be raising rates in less than a year according to the new Chairperson. Markets tend to anticipate and react before the fact of an event. And, fears (such as those associated with Russia and China) drive investors to perceived safety of Treasuries, which puts negative pressures on rates.
In the short-term interest rates could go either way, and changes could be sudden (as we saw last May when rates went up 100 basis points on mere mention of possible Fed tapering). In the long-term, it is hard to believe rates will go anywhere but up, however stressful changes either way are possible in the short-term.