Thin Ice

By: Erik Swarts | Wed, Apr 2, 2014
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Thin Ice

Hope springs eternal, as the mercury breached 50 this afternoon - luring a crocus or three into the early spring air. Heavens to betsy we may even feel 60 tomorrow. With our new Canadian skin now thickened and calloused from an extra serving of arctic, we have the tempered suspicion that 60 is the new 40 - or something along those lines. After this past winter we'll just consider it a rare silver lining.

With that said, silver and the precious metals complex at large have continued their listless retracement decline, now in its third week. While silver especially is skating on very thin ice, we still like the sector's prospects as framed by the broader macro story.

Although silver may be standing with ginger footings, the ground beneath the US dollar as well as 10-year yields appear more fragile from our perspective. Moreover, the yen looks ripe to bounce. Considering these relationships and the fact that the VIX also appears on the precipice of another step higher in its long-term range, we still like the gilded hedge.

As in pond hockey, first one to fall through loses by default.

Silver 2012-2014 versus NASDAQ 2002-2004
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Gold 2012-2014 versus Russell 2002-2004
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10-Year Yields 50-Year Chart
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10-Year Yields 2009-2014 versus 10-Year Yields 1979-1984 Inverted
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10-Year Yields 2012-2014 versus 10-Year Yields 1982-1984 Inverted
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10-Year Yields 2013-2014 versus 10-Year Yields 1994-1995
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Australian Dollar versus Gold Weekly Chart
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10-Year Yields versus Gold Weekly Chart
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10-Year Yields versus BKX weekly Chart
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Yen 1998-2005 Daily Chart
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Yen 2001-2003 versus Euro 2012-2014 Weekly Chart
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USDX 1994 versus 2014 Weekly Chart
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Nikkei 1980-2014 Monthly Chart
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Nikkei 1987 versus 2014 Weekly Chart
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2011 Silver versus EWJ 2014 Daily Chart
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Yen versus GDX Weekly Chart
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1990-1996 VIX versus 2009-2014 VIX Weekly Chart
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Erik Swarts

Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

Copyright © 2011-2014 Erik Swarts

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/