IBEX: The Ending Diagonal
The Triangle scenario that I posted on March 25 has not panned out instead, in my humble opinion, from the December low price has formed an Ending Diagonal.
If this idea is correct from the April 14 low IBEX is unfolding the last Zig Zag up that will complete the converging pattern.
While a Triangle is the pattern that occurs prior to the final thrust that concludes an Elliott Wave pattern, an Ending Diagonal is the last pattern of an impulsive advance, since it occurs in the wave (5), or of a corrective structure, since it is formed by the wave (C) of a Zig Zag or the wave (Y) of a Double Zig Zag.
An Ending Diagonal therefore is a termination pattern.
If you have read the updates of the long-term Elliott Wave pattern that I have been posting you should be aware that I have been suggesting that the advance from the July 2012 is the second countertrend wave (B) within a Double Zig Zag from the November 2007 high. If this Elliott Wave count is correct, once this wave (B) is in place, the following down leg should retrace the entire advance and even establish a lower low (Barring an extension higher with a Triple Zig Zag).
It is unquestionable that from the July 2012 low price has been rising with a corrective structure, moreover if the Ending Diagonal pans out we would have a convincing evidence that price has completed a Double Zig Zag (7-wave structure).
Once an Ending Diagonal is over usually it is followed by a sharp decline which retraces at least to its origin therefore a move back to the December low is almost a done deal.
If we zoom in the short-term time frame from the April 14 low price should unfold a Zig Zag up. If this is the case the wave (A) has been established last Thursday, the current pullback, assumed wave (B) should not breach the 50 dma, which stands 10206. If it bottoms at the 50 dma the following wave (C) up that will complete the Ending Diagonal would have an equality extension target at 17754.80.
Therefore next week I will be looking for a long entry but I will be clearly more interested in shorting this thing once the Ending Diagonal is done.