A Week in Review

By: Erik Swarts | Sun, Apr 27, 2014
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Monday - 4/21 - The Long Tail Of Deflation

"It took the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 basically twenty five years (give or take a month) to recapture the nominal 1929 secular highs. With Japan's Nikkei now trading well into its twenty fourth year since its secular peak in 1989, we thought we would take a quick comparative look at the two most cited deflationary spirals (as weighed by their respective equity market performances) and contrast them with the most recent European deflationary trend as expressed by Spain's IBEX index."

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Tuesday - 4/22 - Apples To Apples - Even When It's Not!

"As Apple pulls into another earnings report after the bell Wednesday, we thought we would update our momentum comparative that has painted the inflections and trajectory on the tech behemoth quite closely over the past 16 months. While Apple's performance this year has not surprisingly consolidated the strong upside reversal witnessed in 2013, the momentum going into earnings is still presenting an upside bias for the stock."

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Thursday - 4/24 - Whats Up With Silver & Gold

"Anecdotally, we are seeing and hearing from those anxiously long the precious metals sector and contentiously short. With gold and silver down sharply in the early morning session - then reversing violently higher, the emotional spectrum in the market is likely diverged at or near another extreme. Over the past 10 months, both bulls and bears alike have been waiting for the next leg to commence. Instead, the market has played the jester - traversing a narrowing range and taking turns at frustrating both sides."

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Friday - 4/25 - The Hand Of The Fed

"While we understand the reticence by some of looking for guidance at a monetary policy regime of yesteryear and near the birth of the Bretton Woods System, we see more parallels than differences when considering the Fed's quite visible hand and their policy disposition with respect to the broader interest rate cycle. From our perspective, the current Fed cycle - because of ZIRP and QE - is nothing like the previous 15 tightening periods since the post-war period began."



Erik Swarts

Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

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