QVM Client Letter (Vol. 7 No. 8): Market Conditions Review

By: Richard Shaw | Sun, May 18, 2014
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Summary

US financial markets are not feeling much stress according to Federal Reserve measures, nonetheless there are important rotations underway within and between asset categories.

Overall financial stress is low, and around levels not seen since early 2007.

Stocks investors are rotating out of momentum and high valuation stocks, into low volatility (up 2x the S&P return YTD), high dividend stocks (up 3x the S&P return YTD); and out of small-cap stocks (down over 4% YTD) to favor large-cap stocks; and to some degree they are rotating into emerging market stocks (up 2x the S&P return YTD).

Within the S&P 500, from highest to lowest, utilities, healthcare, energy, staples, basic materials and telecommunications are outperforming year-to-date. Cyclicals are the worst performers year-to-date (down over 3% YTD). While drops in technology momentum stocks have been in the news, the overall large-cap tech stocks are positive for the year and only slightly underperforming.

Treasury yields, except at the very short end, are falling instead of rising as the consensus had expected. Below investment grade bonds are rising somewhat, while investment grade bond prices are relatively flat.

Long-term Treasury and investment grade bonds are significantly outperforming the US aggregate bond index (up 3+x the aggregate bond return YTD.

High yield corporate bonds are in-line with the aggregate, but high yield municipal bonds are doing very well (up almost 4x the aggregate index YTD).

QVM Client Letter (Vol. 7 No. 8): Market Conditions Review

 


 

Richard Shaw

Author: Richard Shaw

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC

Richard Shaw

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this material and our disclosed positions are as of July 5, 2010. Our opinions and positions may change as subsequent conditions vary. We are a fee-only investment advisor, and are compensated only by our clients. We do not sell securities, and do not receive any form of revenue or incentive from any source other than directly from clients. We are not affiliated with any securities dealer, any fund, any fund sponsor or any company issuer of any security. All of our published material is for informational purposes only, and is not personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. We utilize information sources that we believe to be reliable, but do not warrant the accuracy of those sources or our analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and there is no guarantee that any forecast will come to pass. Do not rely solely on this material when making an investment decision. Other factors may be important too. Investment involves risks of loss of capital. Consider seeking professional advice before implementing your portfolio ideas.

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