A Bearish Trade Developing in Australian Dollar

By: Trading On The Mark | Wed, May 21, 2014
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Watch for a lower high this spring.

We have posted numerous articles explaining why and how we believe the U.S. Dollar will go higher in coming months. In conjunction with that idea, one of the best counterpart bearish currency trades may becoming up soon with the Australian Dollar (NYSEARCA:FXA). This article shows our current Elliott wave interpretations for both currencies, and that should suggest ways to trade them against each other.

Since the U.S. Dollar (DX) serves more than any other as the world's reserve currency, we monitor other currencies in relation to the U.S. Dollar. In part we do this to make our analytical job manageable, but there are other advantages as well. For example, when expressed against the U.S. Dollar, changes in trend tend to occur at the same time among the other currencies. Another advantage, perhaps more important, is that understanding the path of the U.S. Dollar gives the trader a real edge in forecasting the path of other currencies.

Our primary Elliott interpretation describes price action since the 2008 low in DX as a complex corrective pattern, taking the form [a]-[b]-[c]-X-[a]-[b]-[c]. The rally we are expecting would be the final wave [c] of that pattern. If price rises from its 2013 low that was near the 1x1 Fibonacci projection level at 79.27, then upward projection targets for [c] include 90.64 and 97.58.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) - monthly

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AD) has found resistance at the top of the monthly channel defined by the Andrews fork shown below. That area also represented a 1x1 price measurement from the 2001 low, and it produced two exhaustion signals from the Wave59 "nine-five" indicator (not shown). We are provisionally treating the high of April 2013 as a lasting high and are watching for continued movement downward. One sign that would increase confidence in the bearish view would be price remaining below the October 2013 high of 0.9344. Another would be a monthly close below the middle line of the fork shown below.

Australian Dollar futures - Monthly Chart

The weekly chart for AD shows how the wave structure might be setting up to produce a strong downward middle-third wave soon. The important thing to watch this spring is for AD to remain below the high of last autumn and to begin accelerating downward. A more detailed daily chart can be found at Trading On The Mark.

Australian Dollar futures - Weekly

 


 

Trading On The Mark

Author: Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Staying on the right side of the market and making profits consistently is challenging, but it's what we help our members do every day on time frames ranging from intraday to swing trading. Beyond the public blog, members have access to extensive sets of charts and technical analysis for major traded commodities, as well as a live intraday trading forum where we chat with members and identify trading opportunities as they arise.

Our work is grounded in several technical methods. We make use of Elliott Wave, Gann techniques, Fibonacci relationships in price and time, cycles, and other approaches. Most members have several years or decades of trading experience, but we also provide an environment where the dedicated newer trader can learn much that is not available in published books or found in courses.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/