The following is commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Wednesday, 14th 2014.
I am not providing extensive commentary on these charts today except to say, stepping back and looking at general appearance, it appears financial repression, defined as 'official VIX related suppression', should be with us for a few more days (weeks? months?) - as long as it takes for sinusoidal resistance denoted below to be vexed. Looking at the monthly plot of the risk (as defined as the VIX) adjusted plot of the SPX below, such thinking does not appear to be a stretch even though your intuition may be telling you something else. (i.e. do you have a 'falling feeling'?) Although not presented here today, the count on the VIX now suggests a move down into the 10 area, believe it or not, making such a move possible. This is why we look at the charts. Please note I have changed the price plots on Figures 1 and 2 to candles (from solid lines) because they paint a better picture. (See Figure 1)
This next chart is very revealing in this regard, the implications of a completion of the denoted Fibonacci resonance projection enabling a double top in tech stocks essentially. Therein, if the Nasdaq / VXN Ratio were to catapult up to 3.9, an approximate 30% gain from present levels, then the index itself (Nasdaq) should be expected to advance approximately half that number, putting it just short of the 2000 high, keeping the unlikely event of a new high within the same generation in tact. Look for an RSI and flag breakout after a successful channel test, currently underway, to signal the move is on. The fact this ratio has been flagging for approximately a year, building energy, also increases the probability of a break higher as well. (See Figure 2)
And although stochastics in the monthly plot of the NDX / Dow Ratio chart below suggest further weakness, at the same time, from a bubblehead's perspective, the 'overbought condition has been 'worked off', allowing for another romp for tech. So after some further relative weakness, as suggested below, look for a bounce in tech to spark a move higher in the entire stock market, again, possibly pushing the Nasdaq up into double top territory. (See Figure 3)
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