Forex Trading Alert: EUR/USD - Currency Bears in Charge

By: Nadia Simmons & Przemyslaw Radomski | Tue, Jun 10, 2014
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Forex Trading Alert originally published on June 10, 2014, 2:50 PM


 

Today, the common currency continued to move lower against the greenback as Treasury yields in the U.S. continued to rise. In reaction to this, EUR/USD declined below 1.3600 and reached important support lines. Will they stop currency bears?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified (stop-loss order levels were adjusted) - summary:

EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none


EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

On Friday, we wrote the following:

(...) the pair remains below the long-term declining resistance line (currently around 1.3723). Therefore, we think that as long as there is no breakout above this major resistance line, the space for further growth seems limited.

Looking at the above chart, we see that the proximity to the long-term resistance line encouraged forex traders to push the sell button. As a result, the exchange rate reversed and declined, approaching last week's low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. At this point, it's worth noting that slightly below these levels are also the Jan. and Feb. lows, which serve as an additional support. Therefore, we think that if this area holds, we'll see another attempt to break above the major resistance line. However, if it is broken, the next downside target will be around 1.3367, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is.

Once we know the above, let's check the short-term changes.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
Larger Image

On the above chart, we see that although EUR/USD broke above the upper line of the declining wedge, the breakout was invalidated, which was a strong bearish signal that triggered further deterioration earlier today. With this downswing, the exchange rate declined to the strong support zone created by the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement, 141.4% Fibonacci extension, the lower border of the declining wedge (marked with blue) and the upper line of the declining trend channel (marked with red). If it withstands the selling pressure, we'll see a rebound to the upper blue line (currently around 1.3605). However, if this area is broken, we may see a drop even to the Feb. low of 1.3476.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


GBP/USD

GBP/USD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

As you see on the weekly chart, the situation in the medium term hasn't changed much as GBP/USD remains in a consolidation below the resistance level created by the 2010 high. Taking this fact into account, it seems to us that as long as there is no breakout above the upper border of the formation (or a breakdown below 1.6691) another sizable move is not likely to be seen.

Can we infer something more from the short-term picture?

GBP/USD Daily Chart
Larger Image

On Friday, we wrote the following:

(...) GBP/USD (...) broke above the medium-term orange resistance line. Although this was a strong bullish signal, (...) the exchange rate reversed, invalidating the breakout. This is a strong bearish signal and it seems to us that if the pair closes the day below this line, we'll see further deterioration - especially if GBP/USD declines below the green support line based on the May 30 high. In our opinion, if we see such price action, the first downside target will be the May low of 1.6691.

Earlier today, the exchange rate dropped below the green support line and we think that the above-mentioned bearish scenario will be in play in the coming days - especially when we factor in the current position of the indicators (the RSI and CCI reversed, while the Stochastic Oscillator generated a sell signal, supporting the bearish case).

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


AUD/USD

AUD/USD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

The situation in the medium term has improved slightly as AUD/USD extended gains and reached the 38.2% Fibonacci rettracement level based on the entire Apr.2013-Jan.2014 decline. In the previous weeks this resistance level succesfully stopped further improvement. Therefore, if history repeats itself once again, we will see another pullback from here. On the other hand, if currency bulls do not give up and push the pair above this resistance, it seems to us that the previously-broken green resistance line (which corresponds to the Apr. high at the moment) will be strong enough to stop them.

Having say that, let's examine the daily chart.

AUD/USD Daily Chart
Larger Image

Quoting our Forex Trading Alert posted on Friday:

(...) the pair reached the key support/resistance line (...) if it holds, we'll see another try to climb above the resistance zone.

Looking at the daily chart, we see that although AUD/USD climbed above the resistance zone (created by the 76.4% and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels and the red declining resistance line), this improvement was only temporarily and the pair reversed. An invalidation of the breakout is a bearish signal, which suggests that correction is just around the corner. This assumption is currently reinforced by the position of the indicators. Please note that the RSI reached its highest level since mid-May, while the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought. Additionally, there is a negative divergence between the CCI and the exchange rate, which provides us with bearish implication. Therefore, we think that if AUD/USD drops below the green support line, we'll see another sizable move.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Thank you.

 


 

Nadia Simmons

Author: Nadia Simmons

Nadia Simmons
Sunshine Profits.com
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
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Nadia Simmons

Nadia is a private investor and trader, dealing in currencies, commodities (mainly crude oil), and stocks. Using her background in technical analysis, she spends countless hours identifying market trends, major support and resistance zones, breakouts and failures. In her writing, she presents complex ideas with clarity that enables you to easily understand market changes, and profit on them. Nadia is the person behind Sunshine Profits' 3 premium trading services: Forex Trading Alerts, Oil Trading Alerts Alerts, and Oil Investment Updates.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons's reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Copyright © 2013-2014 Sunshine Profits

Przemyslaw Radomski

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Copyright © 2009-2014 Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

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