Forex Trading Alert: AUD/USD - For The Currency Bulls or Bears?

By: Nadia Simmons & Przemyslaw Radomski | Fri, Jun 13, 2014
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Forex Trading Alert originally published on June 12, 2014, 11:04 AM


 

Official data showed that the number of employed people in Australia declined by 4,800 in the previous month, contrary to expectations of a 10,000 rise. Thanks to these disappointing numbers, the Australian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart, reaching an important medium-term support. Later in the day, AUD/USD rebounded from here, supported by mixed U.S. economic data. As a result, the pair broke above the resistance zone, but is the situation as bullish as it seems at the first glance?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified (stop-loss order levels were adjusted) - summary:

EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none


EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Chart
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On the above chart, we see that the situation hasn't changed much as EUR/USD still remains around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and last week's low. Therefore, we believe that what we wrote yesterday remains up-to-date:

(...) it's worth noting that slightly below these levels are also the Jan. and Feb. lows, which serve as an additional support. Therefore, we think that if this area holds, we'll see another attempt to break above the major resistance line. However, if it is broken, the next downside target will be around 1.3367, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is.

Once we know the above, let's check the short-term changes.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
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As you see on the daily chart, although EUR/USD moved lower once again, the pair reversed and still remains above two important support lines: the lower border of the declining wedge (marked with blue) and the upper line of the declining trend channel (marked with red). Taking this fact into account, we think that if this support area withstands the selling pressure, the pair will rebound to the upper blue line (currently around 1.3596). However, if it is broken, we may see a drop even to the Feb. low of 1.3476.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


USD/JPY

Today we'll focus on the short-term changes.

USD/JPY Daily Chart
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Quoting our last commentary on this currency pair:

(...) USD/JPY extended losses and declined below the support zone created by the medium-term blue rising line and the previously-broken lower green line (...) the exchange rate also dropped below the support line based on the May 21 and May 29 lows (marked with purple), while sell signals generated by the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator remain in place. All the above provides us with bearish implications (...) Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that the neck line of the reverse head and shoulders pattern still holds, which may result in a corrective upswing to the previously-broken support zone.

As you see on the above chart, the exchange rate is still trading above the neck line of the reverse head and shoulders pattern, which suggests that another attempt to reach the medium-term blue rising line and the previously-broken lower green line can't be ruled out. On the other hand, sell signals still support the bearish case, indicating that if USD/JPY declines below the major support, we'll see further deterioration and a drop to the May 29 low (or even to the May low of 100.81).

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


AUD/USD

AUD/USD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

The situation in the medium term has improved slightly as AUD/USD climbed above the 38.2% Fibonacci rettracement level based on the entire Apr.2013-Jan.2014 decline. Despite this improvement, the pair still remains below the previously-broken green resistance line, which corresponds to the Apr. high at the moment.

Having say that, let's examine the daily chart.

AUD/USD Daily Chart
Larger Image

Looking at the daily chart, we see that although AUD/USD declined below the red declining line (which serves as support at the moment), the medium-term green line stopped further deterioration and the pair rebounded sharply. With this upswing, the pair broke above the resistance zone created by the 76.4% and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (based on the entire Apr.-May decline) and the May high, which is a bullish signal. In our opinion, the next upside target will be the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement (around 0.9430), which is slightly above the Apr.14 high. Please note that if it is broken, the exchange rate will test the strength of the resistance level created by the 2014 high of 0.9459.

Although the very short-term situation looks bullish at the moment, we should keep in mind that the RSI reached its highest level since mid-April, while the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought. Additionally, there are negative divergences between them and the exchange rate, which suggests that correction is just around the corner.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Thank you.

 


 

Nadia Simmons

Author: Nadia Simmons

Nadia Simmons
Sunshine Profits.com
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
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Nadia Simmons

Nadia is a private investor and trader, dealing in currencies, commodities (mainly crude oil), and stocks. Using her background in technical analysis, she spends countless hours identifying market trends, major support and resistance zones, breakouts and failures. In her writing, she presents complex ideas with clarity that enables you to easily understand market changes, and profit on them. Nadia is the person behind Sunshine Profits' 3 premium trading services: Forex Trading Alerts, Oil Trading Alerts Alerts, and Oil Investment Updates.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons's reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Copyright © 2013-2014 Sunshine Profits

Przemyslaw Radomski

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/