Fed Induced-Rally Does Little...

By: Mark McMillan | Thu, Jul 31, 2014
Print Email

7/31/2014 9:13:39 AM

Gap up open was followed by selling...

Recommendation: Take no action.

Click here to access our stock market chat rooms today! For a limited time, try our chat room for free. No subscription necessary to give it a try.


Stock Market Trends:

Stock Market Trends Table

- ETF Positions indicated as Green are Long ETF positions and those indicated as Red are short positions.

- The State of the stock market is used to determine how you should trade. A trending market can ignore support and resistance levels and maintain its direction longer than most traders think it will.

- The BIAS is used to determine how aggressive or defensive you should be with an ETF position. If the BIAS is Bullish but the stock market is in a Trading state, you might enter a short trade to take advantage of a reversal off of resistance. The BIAS tells you to exit that ETF trade on "weaker" signals than you might otherwise trade on as the stock market is predisposed to move in the direction of BIAS.

- At Risk is generally neutral represented by "-". When it is "Bullish" or "Bearish" it warns of a potential change in the BIAS.

- The Moving Averages are noted as they are important signposts used by the Chartists community in determining the relative health of the markets.


Best ETFs to buy now (current positions):

Long DIA at $161.48 as of December 19, 2013
Long SPY at $181.19 as of December 19, 2013

Click here to learn more about my services and for our ETF Trend Trading.


Value Portfolio:

Long SDRL at $33.90 on June 15, 2012 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.10 per share when we sold those options and bought shares for $35.00 each.) We have collected dividends: June 10, 2014 $1.00, March 5, 2014 $0.98, December 3, 2013 $0.95, September 5, 2013 $0.91, June 5, 2013 $0.88, $1.70 Dec 4, 2012, $0.84 Sep 4, 2012. Total = $6.28 in dividend payments.
Short FXE at $124.19 on August 24, 2012
Long UUP at $22.43 on August 24, 2012
Short FXE at $134.48 on October 4, 2013
Long SDRL at $35.43 on Feb 18, 2014
Long SDRL at $33.50 on March 21, 2014 (Shares were put to us when options expired. We were paid $1.50 per share when we sold those options and bought the shares for $35.00 each.) We have collected dividends: June 10, 2014 $1.00.

We publish new reports to our free newsletter every month. If you're not a member, sign up by clicking here: Free Stock Market Newsletter

A large gap up was followed by a sell-off that lasted through the morning. From noon, equity markets rallied into the Fed announcement at 2:00pm then spiked for fifteen minutes before easing off of most of the gains by the close. This left the Dow with a modest loss, the S&P-500 flat, and the NASDAQ-100 with a fractional gain. This left the Dow and S&P-500 closing below their 20-Day Moving Averages (DMAs) and both are now in downtrend states. The Dow closed even with its 50-DMA. All three major indexes closed above their 200-DMAs and have a BULLISH BIAS. The Semiconductor Index (SOX 620.60 +6.18) added one percent and the Dow Jones Transports (IYT 148.25 +1.13) posted a solid fractional gain. This left both indexes below their 20-DMAs and with the Semis still below their 50-DMA. The Semis are also in a downtrend state. The Finance Sector ETF (XLF 22.88 +0.10) fell half of one percent to close below its 20-DMA. The three canaries all closed mixed: the Russell-2000 (IWM 113.79 +0.45) posted a fractional gain but closed well below its initial gap up open, the Bank Index (KBE 32.55 +0.23) posted a strong fractional gain, and the Regional Bank Index (KRE 39.07 +0.36) gained nearly one percent. gain. All three closed below their respective 20- and 50-DMAs but the Russell-2000 was able to close back above its 200-DMA. All three are in trading states. All three maintain a BEARISH BIAS. Longer Term Bonds (TLT 114.32 -1.61) lost more than one percent and it appears that our top call was right on the money. It shifted to a trading state and maintains a BULLISH BIAS and is above its 20-, 50-, and 200-DMAs. Trading volume remained light with 680M shares traded on the NYSE. Trading volume on the NASDAQ remained average with 1.868B shares traded.

There were four economic reports of interest released:
• Case-Shiller 20-City Index (May) rose +9.3% versus an expected +10.0% rise
• Consumer Confidence (Jul) came in at 90.9 versus an expected 85.6
The first report was released a half hour before the open while the other report was released a half hour into the session.

On Wednesday at 2:00pm EDT, following the Fed Open Market Committed (FOMC) meeting, the Fed released its statement indicating it would continue to taper by $10B, down to $25B in bond buying. It didn't change the Fed funds rate, which remains between 0.00 to 0.25%. The Fed did say that second quarter growth was better than expected.

Apple (AAPL 98.15 -0.23) posted a fractional loss. AAPL constitutes about 20 percent of the NASDAQ-100 and nearly five percent of the S&P-500.

Seadrill Limited (SDRL 36.45 -0.04) posted a modest loss. It is in a downtrend state. We sold March 2014 $35.00 put contracts for $150 at the open on Feb 18th, 2014 and bought shares at $35.43. The stock is now trading ex-dividend for $0.98 and one dollar for total dividends issued of $1.98. The shares were put to us at $35.00 less the $1.50 per share we were paid for the puts, so we have an effective price of $33.50.

The U.S. dollar rose nearly a quarter of one percent while the Euro slid a bit more than one eighth of one percent.

The yield for the 10-year treasuries rose nine basis points to close at 2.55. The price of a barrel of crude oil closed down seventy cents to close at $100.27. The U.S. government reported a draw down of 3.697M barrels of oil last week.

The implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 13.33 +0.05) closed relatively flat. This left the VIX not far below its 200-DMA. The implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 13.93 -0.27) fell two percent.

Market internals were mixed. Decliners led advancers 8:5 on the NYSE and by 10:7 on the NASDAQ. Down volume led up volume 4:4 on the NYSW while up volume led down volume nearly 2:1 on the NASDAQ. The index put/call ratio fell -0.26 to close at 0.81. The equity put/call ratio fell -0.03 to close at 0.57.


Conclusion/Commentary

Wednesday sets the market up for a potential rally after a lower open. The Dow and S&P-500 are now both in downtrend states. We have definitely seen a failure to follow through on bullish moves higher but the market did rally based on the Fed meeting expectations on their policy statement announcement. We will watch to see if the bulls buy the dip on Thursday. If not, we could finally see something get started to the downside and we will exit long trades.

 


We hope you have enjoyed this edition of the McMillan portfolio. You may send comments to mark@stockbarometer.com.

 


 

Mark McMillan

Author: Mark McMillan

Mark McMillan
The McMillan Portfolio

Mark McMillan

Important Disclosure: Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.

Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.

In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.

For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

Copyright © 2008-2014 Mark McMillan

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/