Bitcoin Trading Alert: Is This The Beginning of a Move Up?

By: Mike McAra | Fri, Aug 8, 2014
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Bitcoin Trading Alert originally published on August 8, 2014, 10:33 AM:


In not too many words: we support long speculative positions in the market, stop-loss at $550, take-profit at $880.

Coinbase, a San Francisco based Bitcoin exchange, announced yesterday that the Wikipedia Foundation had received over $140,000 in Bitcoin donations during the first week this option was available to donors:

Since it was founded in 2001, Wikipedia has provided tremendous value to the world by making it easy and free for anyone with an Internet connection to consume information. We were particularly excited to enable the Wikimedia Foundation to accept bitcoin donations because we feel that the decentralized, inclusive nature of Wikipedia is well aligned with Bitcoin and we wanted to help the Bitcoin community contribute to the democratization of information.

Today, we are thrilled to announce that in the first week of accepting bitcoin, the Wikimedia Foundation has received over $140,000 in bitcoin donations.

Wikipedia is run by a non-profit organization and has been able to operate ad-free because of the generosity of donors from across the world. For donors worldwide, bitcoin is a convenient donation method that ensures 100% of donated funds go to the cause. Donors can also enjoy significant tax benefits by donating bitcoin. As inspiring non-profits such as the Wikimedia Foundation continue to adopt bitcoin as a payment method, we look forward to seeing you and the community show strong support as well.

Even if this is not a major market event, we still see it as a sign that there is an audience willing to make donations using their bitcoins. This might as well prompt other non-profit organizations to consider accepting Bitcoin.

This also shows another way to put Bitcoin to good use. With the technical development of Bitcoin and with improvements in the security department we would expect to see a further shift in perception of Bitcoin by the mainstream audience. We've already seen less of a discussion about the illegal ways to use the cryptocurrency and more about the opportunity it might hold for the payment system and for international money transfers.

For now, let's focus on the charts.

Bitcoin USD Chart

On BitStamp, we saw a move up but it was not strong as the trading was down from the day before, which doesn't quite confirm the appreciation. Yesterday, we wrote:

We haven't seen much change which, following our remarks from yesterday, means that we would prefer to stick with our pre-determined investment strategy. The recent increases in volume might not be sustained today (this is far from certain as the day is not over yet) but even if this is the case, it seems that we've seen a period of trading picking up without a clear and strong move of the exchange rate in either direction.

In fact, the volume was down. Today, Bitcoin has edged up (this is written before 9:30 a.m. ET), the volume might be up at the end of the day (this is not certain, though) but the action we've seen doesn't seem representative of a strong move. As a result, it seems that there hasn't actually been much change in the market.

We're above one of the possible recent short-term trend lines but below a second. At the moment $600 (dashed red line) looks like the level to observe as far as appreciation is concerned.

Bitcoin USD Chart 2

On the long-term BTC-e chart, Bitcoin is above our stop-loss level at $550 (solid red line) but still below $600. Right now Bitcoin seems to be edging up toward $600 (dashed red line), a level which might be the starting point of another move up. Will this move last? This is probably what Bitcoin investors are considering at the moment. We provide our opinion on that in the next few paragraphs.

If you recall, yesterday we wrote:

The fact that we haven't seen action recently, there has been no strong move down and Bitcoin has been consolidating for about two months now suggest that we might see a stronger move in the future. We would expect more volatility and a more decisive move up to follow in the next couple of weeks.

This hasn't happened just yet. The volume was up yesterday but it wasn't strong. Today, Bitcoin's been going up and down on volume which hasn't been strong. Today's move might turn out to be another day of appreciation but we haven't seen enough to be overly optimistic just at this moment.

To answer the question on whether the move will last, this might be the case if we see a surge in volume. Our bet is on a move up and we expect Bitcoin to appreciate in the next couple of weeks. An explosion in volume could be a signal that this move has in fact started.

Summing up, in our opinion long speculative positions might be the way to go now.

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): long, stop-loss at $550, take-profit at $880.




Mike McAra

Author: Mike McAra

Mike McAra
Bitcoin Trading Strategist
Bitcoin Trading Alerts at
Sunshine Profits Contributing Author

Mike is a quantitative analyst focused on the economic reality, not theoretical models. His investment thinking is grounded on empirical evidence and common sense.

A holder of 2 master's degrees, in quantitative methods and finance, he researches economic uncertainty, portfolio management, and investor behavior.

Mike joined Sunshine Profits in 2009. He develops innovative investment tools, verifies usefulness of popular techniques, and provides thorough internal research. His quantitative and financial background, along with experience in the gold market and personal interest in bitcoin led to the launch of our Bitcoin Trading Alert service.

Mike passed the first CFA exam at the first attempt with the highest calculated percentage range in the following areas: Alternative Investments, Corporate Finance, Derivatives, Equity Investments, Ethical & Professional Standards, Financial Reporting & Analysis, Portfolio Management, Quantitative Methods.

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