Dusting off My Nasdaq 5000 Hat

By: Stock Barometer | Wed, Aug 20, 2014
Print Email

8/20/2014 6:28:35 AM

Good Morning Traders,

5132.52 - if you remember the days/weeks and months that led up to the peak in the Nasdaq Comp back in March 2000, then you know what a blow off top looks like. So while we're rapidly advancing, we can go higher, much higher.

But in the short term, given the expiration on Friday, we should be approaching that point where future gains are limited, approaching negative over the next 30 days.

Daily Stock Barometer

On to the sub components of the market, the advance in the dollar is killing oil. But we're not complaining. Our puts are up over 400%. Here are the puts we recommended back in July:

Open Option Trades

Also noting the lack of volatility on oil:

Oil Volatility Chart

So for the most part, this is a dollar adjustment - and the price of oil in the longer term has been trending higher since the August 2012 bottom. If that changes, oil will test 29 and volatility will jump! And people will start to worry about the economy. As we've been noting, oil inventories (as we measure them, not as the government reports them) are climbing to a peak, which isn't an issue for me at the pump!

Where's the next opportunity? We're watching gold set up here. Prices have been consolidating, but they're getting ready to move. We'll likely start recommending a position soon.

Gold Options Open Interest Put/Call Ratio Chart

Because it's Wednesday, here's an updated view on Sentiment. Note that the Bulls are playing along. But the bears are a tough nut to crack. Even during this last brief selloff, the bears didn't get bearish. That's a little concerning. You'd prefer to see them move as well as the bulls.

Investors Intelligence % Bulls minus % Bears Chart

And back to the barometer/QQQ chart. Note the V bottom action. The fear is lifting and that action causes markets to rise. Noting 5 gaps up in the Qs. That's a little excessive ad could be approaching a terminal move, but we're not there yet.

Daily Stock Barometer - QQQ Trader - Primary System Chart

Regards,

 


 

Stock Barometer

Author: Stock Barometer

www.stockbarometer.com

Stock Barometer is completely independent. We have never and will not ever accept compensation from any company whose stock we recommend.

Our goal is to make you money. We offer you the tools and information to do so and leave it to you, the individual investor, to apply them in the best way possible.

Important Disclosure: Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.

Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.

In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.

For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

Copyright © 2004-2014 Investment Research Group, Inc.
d/b/a www.Stockbarometer.com. All Rights Reserved.

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/