Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

By: Ian Thijm | Fri, Aug 22, 2014
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In my last 8/2 public post, I mentioned: "The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3 out of 10) and is due in August"

From my 8/2 Daily Email: "Short term, the bias is 8/1 was a Low and we should see an oversold rally into 8/5 Highs at the 8/5 double Geo CIT, 8/5 Solar CIT and 8/5 Solar CIT High, before we see a sharper decline into Monday 8/11 Geo and Cycle CIT and rally into 8/15 Geo CIT Option Expiration (OE) week High...The Flash Crash cycle gets triggered only below 1883 SPX"

From the 8/8 Email Update: "This week (Aug 4-8) is the Week before Option Expiration week (WBOE) and should be an 8/8 Low , before we rally into OE crook's week at the 8/15-18 CIT. Swing traders should lower their stop to 1946 SPX and/ or cover their shorts by 8/8 , as OE crook's week is around the corner."

Actual: We saw an 8/1 Low and a brief rally into 8/4 High at the 8/5 CIT. We declined into 8/7 Geo CIT and Friday 8/8 Globex Low, 1 Trading Day before the 8/11 CIT. Swing traders shorts from 7/25 were covered for a good 50-60 SP profit on 8/8 as we rallied strongly into OE 8/15 week as expected and beyond. The 8/15-18 CIT was the 8/15 Low. The FC cycle never got triggered as we didn't get to the 1883 SPX Make or Break support.


What's next: From the 8/21 Email: " The 8/21 Long and short term double Geo CIT, the 8/24 Solar CIT and 8/22-25 Time square is the next major CIT Cluster to watch and should be an 8/21-25 major High."

Actual: We are rallying into the 8/21-25 major Time and Cycle Cluster CIT suggesting a major High is due soon.


Larger Image

We have rallied into the 361 TD FC Cycle (see chart) and into the 8/21-25 major T&C Cluster suggesting an important 8/21-25 major High forming, before a sharp decline starts. Also the 30 week cycle due around this time: The 30 week cycle : 7/8/09L -212/30- 2/5/10L -207- 8/27/10L -201- 3/16/11L -202- 10/04/11L -210/30- 5/1/12H -210/30- 11/27/12L(-11) -210/30- 6/25/13L -210- 1/21/14-213 = 8/22/14 +/-week.

8/21-25 is the next major Time CIT Cluster to watch:

  1. The Long Term Geometric CIT since the 3/6/09 Low and a short term Geometric CIT is due on 8/21+/-1.
  2. The next Solar CIT is This weekend 8/24.
  3. 8/22-25 is next major Time Square CIT from 10/11/07H.

Long term geometric CIT is due on Thursday 8/21***

Time Squares of Highs from 10/11/07
10/11/07 - 4/2/12 High = 1127 TD = 33.56 Squared
10/11/07 - 10/17/12 High = 1265 TD = 35.56^2
10/11/07 - 5/21/13 High = 1411 TD = 37.56^2
10/11/07 - 12/31/13 High = 1566 TD =39.57^2
41.56 = 1727 TD = 8/22/14 High next!
41.57 = 1728 TD = 8/25/14


Larger Image

The last 3 Time Squares from 10/11/07H has all been major Highs ( blue lines ) and the next one due on 8/22-25 and should also be a major High. If correct, we will see a relative sharp decline as the last 3 declines averaged 120 SP's into a major Low, based on another Time square series from 10/11/07H that has all been major Lows (Red Lines on chart).

Please note as these public posts are an excerpt, they will not include all the information needed. To trade these T&C clusters CIT, we follow one simple rule: As all trends are up, swing traders should short only when we see a clear reversal and close lower. Once the Highs are in, there will be plenty of time to get short and always place a stop at those Highs.

 


 

Ian Thijm

Author: Ian Thijm

Ian Thijm BSc, MBA
Raj Times and Cycles

My first experience with the Stock-markets was during my MBA in August 1987, right before the 87 crash. Needless to say I fell in love with the markets and studied everything I could on Timing and Cycles in the Markets, including Gann, Bayer, Baumring, Astrology, Geometry, etc. Although I loved the markets, the markets didn't love me the 1st 7 years. Then I found a unique "Ezekiel Wheel" (Symmetry Point Cycle) based on the works of James Brock and in October 1994, I turned $5000 into over $112,000 in one month. I thought I had found the Golden Key to unlock all the market profits, but the markets again humbled me. I spent the next 7 years studying and researching various unique Time and Cycle methods. Then in June 2000, I met my Partner and I became a full time Investment Manager. Life, like Markets goes through Cycles and the next 7 years, I had the most valuable, enriching lessons in my life with Markets, People and managing Money. It was very enlightening. This brings us to the present day, where I feel the need to share and teach what I have learned and that is what this blog and website is all about. I hope it is worthwhile to you.

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