Gold, Oil, Volatility, and the Stock Market

By: John Lee | Wed, Aug 10, 2005
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Oil keeps hanging above $60, since November 2003, it has gained 140%! This has occurred without major supply disruption.

S&P500 in a similar period, has gained over 50%. Such gain would have made sense during a major oil correction, but oil is doing the opposite.

Volatility index keeps on getting lower. It's now lower than late 90's when there was no war, no inflation, and no worries.

In my opinion, those analysts who can manage to explain it all without crediting official intervention, can make sense of everything - in hindsight. If one can't prove that earth is round, those analysts can explain how earth is flat too.

Dollar is sacrificed in the process.

The handholding by the fed will stop at some point for one reason or another (my take is likely by a $100 oil price). When the fed stops buying the markets, dollar may shoot up, along with plunging stock and commodity prices. Much like the reverse of what we have in the last 3 years. Clearly, we are not there yet and there is no reason to suggest any change in current conditions.

What about gold? Gold keeps consolidating. Notice the higher lows. At some point after it overcomes a threshold (whether it be $480 or $500, or higher), it will shoot higher like what we have witnessed in copper and oil.

In all, my take is precious metals remains to be the sector with lowest risk. It's at or near historic low measured by oil, copper, the Dow, or just the gold price itself having adjusted for inflation. Investors might have to be patient for a few more months but they shall be handsomely awarded.


John Lee

Author: John Lee

John Lee, CFA
Executive Chairman,
Prophecy Development Corp.

John Lee, CFA is an accredited investor with over 2 decades of investing experience in metals and mining equities. Mr. Lee is the Chairman of Prophecy Development Corp ( John Lee is a Rice University graduate with degrees in economics and engineering.

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