Lindsay: How Low Will It Go?

By: Ed Carlson | Tue, Feb 3, 2015
Print Email

If the Dec high was point H of Linds ay's long cycle (approximately 20 years) as suspected then we can examine past declines from H to I to get an idea as to how low this decline will go. Unfortunately, with only four previous long cycles to examine (since 1921) the sample size is less than "significant".

A Simplication of all the long cycles since 1798

The average decline from H to I is 23%. The smallest decline was 10% (1990) and the largest was 45% (1973-74).

If the Dow falls 10% from the Dec high point I will occur near 16,249. If the Dow falls 23%, point I will occur near 13,902.

Expanding our search to include the declines from B to C, F to G, and J to K (D-E and L-M are excluded as they are the terminal declines of multiple cycles and expected to be abnormally large) the average decline is 21% and the smallest decline was 6%. If the Dow falls 6% from the Dec high point I will occur near 16,971.

Dow Chart

Reminder: this analysis is only helpful if the Oct low was not point I. The Dow fell 6.7% during Sept-Oct, 2014.


Try a 'sneak-peek' at Seattle Technical



Ed Carlson

Author: Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson
Seattle Technical

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

Copyright © 2012-2017 Ed Carlson

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright ©