Wedgie

By: Gary Tanashian | Sun, Aug 28, 2005
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Finally, the bears have gotten a pound of bull flesh. I am sure it tastes good too, after all the abuse our furry friends have endured at the hands of the hubris-blinded, stampeding bulls. But nothing goes straight up, and nothing goes straight down.

In a sea of technical indicators, we'll focus today on rising and falling wedges. The S&P sports a potentially bullish falling wedge above what look like a couple areas where it will try to find support:

A wedge-like object on the Dow shows the same basic story:

Now look at the potential bearish rising wedge for the VIX:

It shows rising bearishness alright, but it could be just the kind of bearishness to ignite at least a short-term market rally. For further emphasis, let's look at the Put/Call Ratio:

The 20 DMA on this indicator has been creeping up to the 1.00 level, at which point the broad markets previously launched a strong, summer-long rally. That is not to say that the same will happen from here, but a rally of some sort may not be far off.

Perhaps a short term top in the much publicized price of crude could be the bulls' excuse. Failing that, some other spin du jour may present itself. The bulls simply need an excuse, any excuse.

This report is being written during market hours on Friday. I have put in a sell on my Rydex 200% inverse Dow fund after having sold my QQQQ and SPY puts previously. I do not feel comfortable at the moment being short these indexes. If I miss the big ride to short heaven, so be it. My humble profit is booked. Greed kills and absolute greed kills absolutely, as I suspect the perma-bulls will one day find out when it becomes clear that their echo-bull market is merely another manifestation of inflationary policy.

To be clear, the possible bullish indicators above may only be signaling an opportunity to initiate or add to short positions and if the markets break down below the above noted support levels, then all bets are off and things could really start to get funky.

If the short term bullish scenario plays out, one could expect the majority of the wedges to be retraced, possibly as part of an attempt to test recent highs. I expect them to fail. The market is in a "show me" mode. This is one man's opinion on "potential" near-term happenings.


 

Gary Tanashian

Author: Gary Tanashian

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

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