The State of The Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Mar 14, 2015
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There are two main events next week likely to shape the trend of the indices in the upcoming days: FED meeting, March 17-18, and quadruple witching, March 20th. The most recent occurences of these events are marked on the chart below:

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

During the past year, the pattern leading to quadruple witching has been fairly consistent: sell-off the week before, rally during expiration week. Adding FED meetings to the mix didn't change the outcome.

The expectation for a rally next week is also bolstered by the fact that weak seasonality is coming to an end, and that the broader market, as represented by the Russell 2000, wasn't affected by the sell-off as much as the narrower indices, such as the DJIA, SP500 and NDX. The uncertainty surrounding next week seems to hinge on whether the FED will keep or omit the word "patient" from its statement. Something that was not an issue last year. Therefore, we'll keep an eye on the 2050 level for the SPX as our bullish/bearish fulcrum.

Trend Bars™ continue to do a nice job of defining the trend and filtering out random price noise:

SPDR S&P500 ETF Chart
Chart courtesy of OddsTrader

 


 

George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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