Technical Observations and Sector Outlooks (Notes)

By: Ed Bugos | Thu, Sep 8, 2005
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Currencies: over the past week BP, AD, and Euro catch up to and outperform CAD helping to push USd index to lower ST low; CAD and Yen drop down rankings on the lower low in USd after leading complex with BP early (for most of summer in the case of the CAD)... gold outperforming all currencies in recent week except BP, still... USd index worst performing currency across the board for five weeks now along with SA Rand... current USd rollover is either an unwinding of this year's countertrend move en route to new lows, or merely correction of the rally to a successful test of support at the 84/85 handle if it is for real (and not just a bounce)... ST momentum is against the USd which is traveling back down to its 200-day moving average; technical objective of (Nov-04 to Apr-05) ascending triangle met in July's spike to just over 90 thus current decline is not merely a retracement before move continues... bulls have to set up for new move if further rally is in the cards... market seems anxious to test bullish support levels at any rate... next week or two could be decisive one way or another...

Paper: despite current buying the S&P500 index is in a nearly 2-yr rising wedge and the Dow is in a similarly long choppy trading range only barely defined by an uptrend... look for stocks/bonds to continue decoupling...

Commodities: there's no stopping the CRB which went off to new 25-year highs - in fact it came within only a few points of the all time high at about 338 made in 1980 - on advances in the energies and copper, though the precious metals platinum and gold have been contributing lately... silver is weak link in PM complex but starting to recover some now (becoming the best performing metal in past week)... copper losing some momentum and together with silver suggest base metal play is petering... livestock and agricultural commodities still lagging but picking up nevertheless... sugar still strong (in 2 year uptrend)... the softs are mixed but fresh signs of strength showing up in Lumber, Cotton, and Cocoa... best performing commodities in past week were the gases, silver, copper and some of the industrial commodities - weakest performers were Livestock, Oil, Agriculture and some of the industrial/softs... the rankings have been much the same for the past month except for the improvement in silver performance and in the breadth of the general uptick in commodity prices (or all prices for that matter)...


Ed Bugos

Author: Ed Bugos

Edmond J. Bugos

Ed Bugos is a former stockbroker, founder of, one of the original contributing editors to and former editor of the Gold & Options Trader. He continues to publish commentary on market and economic trends; and provides gold, economic and mining research to private clients worldwide.

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