Excerpts from Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster

By: Julian D. W. Phillips | Mon, Oct 3, 2005
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HIGHLIGHTS in "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster"
- Silver - COT, Gold : Silver Ratio EDR.V, SSRI, PAAS, SIL, HL, CDE/
- Platinum.

- Market Action / Short-term forecasts across the Board!
- Comex positions/ Commercial Shorts Help Indicate Price Movements
- The Indian Gold Market 2004/5
- The professional management of gold in Central Bank reserves - Argentina
- Zimbabwe government to acquire stakes in international companies
- The Oil Crisis - Short & Long Term.
- Prospects for the U.S. $/ Prospects for the US $ Short & Long-Term
- DJIA / 10-Year Bond / CRB / Gold : Oil Ratio - FRESH Record Lows.
- Technical Analysis of the Gold Price: Long/Short term in the U.S. $
- International Gold Markets / Focus on Euro, Euro Gold Price.

Trial Subscription 3 months for $99- go to www.goldforecaster.com

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The Central Bank Gold Agreement of 2004. - Year 2.

Sept 2004 - June 2005
  C.B.G.A. 2004 Tot com. Tot Rem.
E.C.B. 47 235 188
Austria 10 90 80
Germany 0 0 0
France 115 600 485
Nether 55 165 110
Portugal 55 200 180
Sweden 15 45 30
Switzer 130 129 0
Spain 30 0
Belgium 30 0
Total -487 1449 1073
Source: World Gold Council
Notes: 1) Germany has only sold amounts minted into Coins -Not included in the Agreement.
2) The E.U. sold 53.8 tonnes unexpectedly, without naming the source, so we cannot give a future sales figure nor a residual amount to be sold.

Some have come along to sell when perhaps this decision was not made prior to the agreement being signed and some changed their mind after the event.

Portfolio Progress in South Africans

In the 13th June 2005 Issue we recommended you buy four South African Gold Mines and hold them for a year.

Here are the prices at which we recommended them and the prices today:

  Entry Prices Current Price % Increase
AngloGold Ashanti $34.20 $43.20 +26.32%
Goldfields $10.50 $14.88 +41.71%
Harmony $ 7.50 $11.19 +49.2%
DRD Gold $ 0.75 $1.39 +85.33%
Sasol $25.00 $38.70 +54.80%

We believe there is much more to come as the gold price rises and the average price of gold the mines receive rises. These are not the only gold share we like, just the South African ones we recommended.

You may well ask why we recommended South African gold shares at all in view of the predatory attitude towards South African mining on the part of the South African government and its taxation policies. Primarily it is because South African miners are amongst the best in the world and they on a broad front are moving out of South Africa slowly but surely and diversifying into more lucrative and more mining friendly parts of the world. Already the cash flow from offshore is substantial. Already it is clear they will be successful outside the country and already they have made it clear they are taking the companies offshore with them. Here are the comments of the main-man-what-counts at Goldfields, Chris Thompson.

He said South African gold mining companies would have to continue their move offshore if their companies were to survive. "Unfortunately, the move to offshore business has become politicised in South Africa, even though geology has no politics," he said. "A company with its foundations in South Africa is ending. The base is gone and there's nowhere to go." South African gold mines were getting deeper and the distance between the shafts and the mining activities was also increasing. The inevitable outcome was an increase in costs, Thompson said. "The industry is dying and dropping fast."

In 1998 the South African gold mining industry produced about 450 tonnes per year. It is looking as though it will struggle to produce even 300 tonnes this year. Gold Fields would continue to expand its offshore portfolio, but as yet, there is no further clarity on whether corporate activity with Polyus, the gold unit of Norilsk Nickel, which owns about 20% of Gold Fields, would resume, but clearly there is a synergy between the two with similar objectives.

Some of our other recommendations in other parts of the globe and their performance will be posted in next week's issue.

To Subscribe to "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster", please go to: www.goldforecaster.com


Julian  D. W. Phillips

Author: Julian D. W. Phillips

Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster

Julian D. W. Phillips

"Global Watch: The Gold Forecaster" covers the global gold market. It specializes in Central Bank Sales and details, the Indian Bullion market [supported by a leading Indian Bullion professional], the South African markets [+ Gold shares shares] plus the currencies of gold producers [ Euro, U.S. $, Yen, C$, A$, and the South African Rand]. Its aim is to synthesise all the influential gold price factors across the globe, so as to truly understand the global reasons behind the gold price.

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