UK Economy - Big Picture - Part 4 - "Dark forebodings on the dark side of the Boom"

By: Jonathan Rosser | Thu, Oct 20, 2005
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A very brief update but coming at a critical time:

The FTSE 100 is falling impulsively (overdue a bounce by now)- after reaching my top side target of 5500 (part 1) Key stocks - BP, Banks - and to be joined by Vodaphone real soon - look ready to crack. The UK economy is grinding to a halt (expect the grind to gain momentum anytime soon). The housing market, after a brief consolidation is starting its next and most impressive leg down. Both the Government & Major Banks are advertising stock market linked bonds - If the Government and Banks feel the public wants "IN" on the stock market again then the up trend is definitely over.

What is next:

Expect the 8 month trend in rising unemployment to pick up speed as the economy heads over the cliff in the next 12 months. FTSE 100 to fall way below the most pessimistic economists target range - ultimately 1987 levels (that's AFTER the crash). The return of "negative equity" - mortgage higher than house value will make a most unwelcome return. The governments plans to build thousands of new homes to ease the "housing crisis" will fall foul of "the real Housing crisis" and never see the light of day. Debt repayment will begin in earnest in time for the holiday season. Recession by Q1 2006 turning to depression in years to follow. Oil prices will come crashing down after perhaps one more new high. Commodities including Gold will also fall significantly. Bank profits replaced by the spectre of "Bad Debts." US dollar will continue to rise in value relative to other currencies.

Socially

Mood of the masses will turn increasingly pessimistic. Music will become increasingly dark and angry - a trend that started back in late nineties. Heavy Metal will return in an even more violent and evil guise. Witch craft and the occult will grow in popularity in a far more sinister way than Harry Potter. Social discontent will see the return of rioting on the streets of the UK. Irish peace and disarmament will be replaced by the return of "the troubles."
New Labour's popularity will take a dive - the Liberals or some new party will probably take centre stage European Union will disintegrate - Turkey will never make it in!
Freedoms we take for granted will be removed by increasingly extreme politics. Xenophobia will become a social ill. Attendances at football matches will fall to all time lows (this trend has seen its beginning with the start of the new season). Football violence and racial prejudice will return to the terraces. Manchester United will ultimately be relegated from the Premiership (update on "Manchester United Indicator" soon. No one team will dominate football for the next 10 years - not even Chelsea! Pink Floyd will probably record new material and tour!!!


 

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