USDJPY: Big Correction Near Completion

By: Gregor Horvat | Mon, Jan 25, 2016
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USDJPY is falling sharply and very aggressively towards the levels of August of 2015, but it's still too soon to confirm if wave four will be a triangle or a flat. It can be both as long as wave A) holds, but we still think that sooner or later bears will slow down and that price will rally in three legs; either from here or from around 114.00. So for now, trend is still down, but key for bulls will be a bullish reversal in five waves on lower time frames. Only then we can start looking immediately higher again.

USDJPY, Daily

USDJPY Daily Chart

On the lower time frame, USDJPY reached new lows this week after a completed wave 4, so pair might be forming a bottom if we consider recent bounce with more than 200 pips from the low. That said, we would not be surprised if pair will continue higher, at least with three legs of recovery, specifically if stocks will hold lows that were made earlier this week. However, even if USDJPY is bottoming it still can be a little too soon for confirmation; we want an overlap with 120.32 before significant low can be locked-in.

USDJPY, 4H

USDJPY 4-Hour Chart

 


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Gregor Horvat

Author: Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat
www.ew-forecast.com

Gregor Horvat

Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of www.ew-forecast.com, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on: SafeHaven.com, FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At www.ew-forecast.com he helps clients and educate them about the Elliott wave prinicple and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time.  His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators.

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