The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Jan 31, 2016
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The bounce we were expecting a couple of weeks ago arrived on schedule and marked exactly the half-way point (price and time wise) of the December '15 - January '16 down swing. From the January 20th swing low the SP500 has advanced 270 degrees up just like it did in August and September '15, and is trading below resistance at 1947. February 1st is a short-term CIT date and we expect a sideways/down move to follow:

S&P500 Daily Chart

As long as the index doesn't retreat below 1880, and the 1 x 1 angle from the January swing low, it will remain in a strong position and the current upswing is likely to continue.

Looking at the long-term cycles, we find an interesting phenomenon occurring during the first week of March: two different cycles, connecting weekly swing highs and lows, converge in that week and, in our estimation, should produce an important CIT.

S&P500 Weekly Chart

Currently, there are two obvious price targets for that period: 2040 to the upside, and 1820 to the downside.

 


 

George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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