Brexit: About That Online/Phone Discrepancy (It Vanished); Surprising Poll After Cox Murder

By: Mike Shedlock | Sat, Jun 18, 2016
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Graphs below show Brexit poll results since June 10. There were 10 polls in all, five online and 5 phone.

For months we have been hearing that online polls are unreliable, and telephone polls tell the "real story". My graphs show it doesn't matter which polls you believe!

Let's also take a look at a surprising poll after the murder of Jo Cox. Many thought there would be a positive effect for Remain. A new poll says the opposite.

USA Today reports Exclusive Poll: EU Support Falls After Jo Cox Murder

British support for remaining in the European Union has weakened in the wake of the murder of the pro-EU politician Jo Cox, according to an online research company Friday.

Qriously, a London-based technology start-up that gathers data and intelligence about consumers through mobile phone apps, found that backing among likely voters for Britain's EU membership has dropped to 32% from 40% before her death.

The poll was based on 1,992 British adults surveyed on June 13-16, and then 1,002 on June 17 the day after Cox was shot and killed in northern England. The start-up claims to have held the first such survey on the topic since the lawmaker's slaying. Most of Qriously's surveys are done for corporate brands and it has not been previously conducted an EU referendum poll.

Qriously found that 52% will vote to leave the bloc in a national referendum on June 23. The figure is unchanged from before the parliamentarian's death. The weakening support for remaining in the EU coincided with a large move toward "Don't know," which leaped to 16% from 9% before Cox's assassination.


Qriously Curious

No one knows much of anything about Qriously, especially me. I discount this curious poll, but at worst it's neutral for Leave.


Cox Death Impact

Stephan Shakespeare, the founder and chief executive British polling firm YouGov, told USA TODAY he did not think Cox's murder would lead to a shift in attitudes toward the vote, "but the nature of the campaigning will be changed and that probably will have an impact" on opinion.

Allegedly, there will not be an attitude shift but there will be an impact on opinion. So, is that a yes or a no?


J.P. Morgan Opinion

Please consider JPMorgan Sees Lead for Leave of 3-5 Percent in Brexit Vote: Poll Analysis

JPMorgan said on Friday it saw a lead for the "Out" campaign in Britain's European Union referendum, according to an analysis of opinion polls.

"Our attempt to clean up the polls for methodological issues suggests a lead for leave in the 3-5 percent range at the time of writing," researchers said in a note.

"The swing toward leave appears to have accelerated as we moved into the period when we would expect status quo bias to show," they added, while warning that it was "now unlikely" that polls would offer clear guidance on the outcome.


Poll Analysis

I agree with J.P. Morgan on poll analysis. Moreover those polls are breaking as I expected, but most didn't.

There has been a major attitude change that believers in history continue to ignore. The charts below clearly show the trend, in both online and phone polls.


3 to 5 Point Lead

June Brexit Polls

Those numbers are precisely in-line with analysis of J.P. Morgan


Brexit Phone Polls

Five Brexit Telephone Polls Since June 10


Brexit Online Polls

Five Brexit Online Polls Since June 10


History Lesson for Matt Singh

Mish Tweet 1

I have been harping about this for weeks, on deaf ears to believers of history.

If Matt Singh proves correct after all, I suspect sensationalism over Jo Cox will be the thing that carries the day for remain.

 


 

Mike Shedlock

Author: Mike Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock

Michael "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/ to learn more about wealth management for investors seeking strong performance with low volatility.

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