Stock Market: CNBC Report

By: Bill McLaren | Mon, Dec 12, 2005
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THIS WILL BE MY LAST MESSAGE UNTIL MONDAY JANUARY 2nd.

CNBC EUROPE

LET'S LOOK AT THE FTSE WEEKLY CHART

On the weekly chart you can see how this is now in the third and final leg up to this bull campaign from the 2004 low. The first drive up was 185 days the second leg was 157 days and 755 points. This leg could go to between 5850 and 5980 if it is going to develop into a complete leg up.

NOW LET'S LOOK AT THE FTSE DAILY CHART

The index completed a leg up and corrected three days down. It is now consolidating that last move up as I had forecast. The index now needs to resume the up trend -- it has consolidated long enough. If one is bullish you don't want to see another new high that fails, as that would put the index at risk of further correction. If the index can establish a daily low above the high of last week it would indicate a resumption of the uptrend and a fast run up until January 19 th and we can look for a low around December 20 th to start a final drive up. If it cannot extend this rally and we do see another new high that cannot follow through to the upside, keep in mind that are 4 points in place to a 5 point broadening top. So it is very important we don't see a lower high up here.

LET'S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

You can see support continues to come into this index at a high level, not only holding above the previous high but also leaving a space between that support and the low. If the uptrend was to resume Monday was a cycle day that could start the resumption of the trend. If that does occur it also makes a high possible 30 days later or around January 11th. As we discussed last week if the index can do some trade above 1283 it could indicate an exhaustion phase of trend is in place and indicate much larger prices. If it cannot move above that level, then we need to be concerned with a top starting to form.

CRUDE OIL - If the trend is down in crude oil it should hit a high this week, I forecast the rally would be 7 to 12 trading days and Friday was the 7th day. so there should be a high this week if the trend is down.

COPPER - has some time cycle that indicate a possible high this week. This is a probability and far from a certainty. No one should ever short a market that is exhaustion. A move down that exceeds four days should be enough to indicate a top is in place and usually indicates the next rally will fail.

CNBC ASIA

LET'S LOOK AT LONG TERM MONTHLY CHART IN GOLD

This is a monthly chart made up of the December contracts. You can see the zone of resistance is up to 553. You can also see this latest move up is now in an exhaustive phase. I feel confident saying IF the market goes up into February 2nd it will be the end of the bull campaign. Two other important dates are December 19th and January 3rd. Forecasting the price level while in an exhaustion phase is unreliable and I would be guessing, if it is still going up into January - then I'll have a price. But the price could be as high as 600 or it could exhaust at either of the other dates and would be at much lower prices. But since this is an exhaustion phase, a move down that exceeds 4 trading days would indicate the up trend is complete or will end on the next rally. Friday showed a large gap up and will likely need to be consolidated before further advance. But make no mistake - this is an exhaustion phase of this advance.

LET'S LOOK AT A CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART

I do believe the trend is down but this is an important week. The move down was 92 calendar days and "overbalanced" any previous move down in oil since the bull trend started. But the normal counter trend on a monthly chart for most markets is 90 days and the move down fit that criteria. If the trend is down the next high should come between 7 and 12 trading days and most contracts should stop at the 3/8th retracement level. It is now 8 days and most contracts have tested that price level.

NOW LET'S LOOK AT THE NIKKEI

This is a classic exhaustion or blowoff trend. These can be identified by three or four ascending trendlines. A few weeks back I identified this as an exhaustion leg up and had the probability of running up until January 19th. That is still the situation, December 19 is the only resistance in time I have before that date. It is still possible for this index to continue up until the January date as per my forecast.

The ASX 200 AUSTRALIAN STOCK INDEX SHOULD BE AT A LOW TODAY AND SHOULD MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO RESUME THE TREND

THE HANG SENG SHOULD BE AT A LOW TODAY AND IF VALID COULD RUN UP TO JANUARY 26th. If you will recall the move down should not exceed four days if the trend were to remain up. Friday's inside day was the fourth day. If Friday's low is broken I'll change from bullish to neutral on this index. But today should resume the trend.

COPPER - I have time cycles that indicate a possible high the later part of this week. This represents a probability not a certainty. No one should short trends that are exhausting. A move that exceeds 4 down days should be enough to indicate a top is in place and the next rally should fail after that occurs.


 

Bill McLaren

Author: Bill McLaren

Bill McLaren
McLaren Report

Disclaimer: This message is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.

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