GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

By: Mike Shedlock | Sat, Mar 25, 2017
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Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago.

The FRBNY Nowcast Model inched up to 2.96% from 2.83% but rounding makes it appears as a 0.2% increase.


GDPNow Latest forecast: 1.0 percent - March 24, 2017

Evolution of Atlanta FED GDPNow Real GDP Forecast

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.0 percent on March 24, up from 0.9 percent on March 16. The forecast for first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 7.3 percent to 7.8 percent after this morning's durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth increased from –0.87 percentage points to –0.77 percentage points after last Friday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.


FRBNY Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.0 percent - March 24, 2017

FRBNY Nowcast Latest Forecast

So here we are with a full 2 percentage point gap between the forecasts with an alleged margin of error for each of 1 percentage point.

 


 

Mike Shedlock

Author: Mike Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock

Michael "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/ to learn more about wealth management for investors seeking strong performance with low volatility.

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