Excerpts From - "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"

By: Julian D. W. Phillips | Sun, Jan 22, 2006
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Excerpts From - "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"

HIGHLIGHTS from "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"
COT- Gold & Silver: Silver Ratio, EDR.V, SSRI, PAAS, SIL / Platinum.
SHARES: HUI, NEM, GOLD, FCX-DROOY-NG-VGZ-Croesus-AngloPlats-Portfolio

Market Forecasts / Short-term forecasts across the Board! Comex Positions
Iran & the Euro price of oil / U.S. Balance of Payments in Deficit?/ GFMS update on the Gold market / Indian demand/ Oil prices rising again/ Prospects for the U.S. $ 2006 / Gold: Oil Ratio / Dow Jones / Technical Analysis of the Gold Price: Long / Gold price drivers 2006 / Short term in the U.S. $ / Treasury Notes / CRB Index
International Gold Markets/Silver / Platinum / Silver & Gold Shares/Portfolio

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Central Bank Gold Agreement Sales in 2006
With general talk now speculating that Central Banks are turning back to gold comes the news of GFMS having talked to many of them and found them to be turning around in favor of gold! This is important to gold, because Central Bankers views of gold do lay the foundation of Investor attitudes and actions. Secondly, if Central Banks turn from sellers to holders the impact on the gold price is heavy. For them to turn to buyers would change the entire future for gold.

Please note that if they view gold as being necessary to the monetary system, they define gold as money. As they are the writers of money, such a move would take the price of gold to a point where it can act as global money in one form or another. The path to that point may well still be a long one, but every step on that journey takes the gold price higher. We forecast that that they have already begun down that road.

A look at the tiny amount of gold sold by the signatories in the week ending the 13 th January appears on the surface to support that. Only one of the signatories of the C.B.G.A. sold a ½ tonne of gold. And this when the gold price was moving to new recent highs!

Why did they not sell more? There could be many reasons, but the most practical reason is a market one, don't fight a price 'spike', IF you are hoping to bring stability to the market. No such reason will be given by them as that appears to be too close to price management [manipulation?]. It is apparent now that the ceiling of 500 tonnes will not be sufficient to control this market. If gold is accepted as a currency, why are they selling it? Policy changes in Central Banks take time, but placing a hold on a policy as a review takes place need not do so. We are not privy to their discussions so have to wait to hear from them, but we are watching these patterns of sales week by week and will continue to report on them. If the present pattern persists and sales fall away, we would expect them to sell sporadically into 'spikes', or to announce their change of policy and a cessation of gold sales. This year promises change!

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Julian  D. W. Phillips

Author: Julian D. W. Phillips

Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster

Julian D. W. Phillips

"Global Watch: The Gold Forecaster" covers the global gold market. It specializes in Central Bank Sales and details, the Indian Bullion market [supported by a leading Indian Bullion professional], the South African markets [+ Gold shares shares] plus the currencies of gold producers [ Euro, U.S. $, Yen, C$, A$, and the South African Rand]. Its aim is to synthesise all the influential gold price factors across the globe, so as to truly understand the global reasons behind the gold price.

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