Excerpts From - "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"

By: Julian D. W. Phillips | Mon, Jan 30, 2006
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HIGHLIGHTS in "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"
Silver - COT, Gold: Silver Ratio EDR.V, SSRI, PAAS, SIL, SLW / Platinum.
SHARES: HUI, XAU, NEM, FCX, DROOY, NG, VGZ, Western Areas, Gold Fields, Randgold, Barplats, Portfolio Update, New Buy - WGDF, Sell - IGMI for 180% Profit!, Notes.

Index:
1-2. Market Forecasts / Short-term forecasts across the Board!
2-3. Comex
3-12. Central Bank Sales / Exchange Traded Funds / China - Who's kidding who / The Global Gold Market from the Indian gold market / Iran & the Euro price of oil / U.S. Balance of Payments in Deficit? / GFMS update on the Gold market / Indian demand / Oil prices rising again / Prospects for the U.S. $ 2006 / Gold: Oil Ratio / Dow Jones / Technical Analysis of the Gold Price: Long / Gold price drivers 2006 / Short term in the U.S. $ / Treasury Notes / CRB Index
12 - 31. International Gold Markets / Silver / Platinum/ Silver & Gold Shares

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Central Bank Gold Agreement Sales in 2006

Last week saw zero Central Bank selling by the Central Bank old Agreement signatories, the first time under this agreement, confirming our belief that the strongest gold price driver is lack of selling! This came on the back of ½ tonne sale from the week before.

Can we read more into this than a simple slowdown in sales? That there is a change in Central Bank views on gold [South Africa, Russia and possibly China] is a matter of public record, but the processes required to alter gold selling programmes is long and complicated. It is likely that the road to a cessation of any sales is a long one. However the question we should ask is have they embarked on that road and if so when?

GFMS wanted us to state their views on 'Official' gold sales is that:

CB006210 - Crystal Globe and Golden Light "despite recognising the potential for certain players to appear on the buy side, we remain categorical that central banks will continue to be sellers overall." And we respect them and that view. However, we remain in no doubt that at the decision making level in more than just the Bundesbank of Germany, there are questions being asked about the wisdom of these policies in the face of the global realities facing them. After all, these gold sale policies from the signatories of the Agreement started with the "Washington Agreement" when the gold price was under $300. It was then re-established in the Central Bank Gold Agreement, when gold was under $400.

The persistent reminder that Britain kept selling to average $270 + an ounce will continue so long as the price rises. As the credibility of the $ continues to wane and the gold price continues to rise, pressure has to be growing on the Central Banks to halt sales.

We have changed a view from last week and that is it is now unlikely that they will make any public statement if they do change their policies, they will simply withdraw from the market silently. After all the Central Bank Gold Agreement is to limit gold sales from them to a "ceiling" of 500 tonnes. Nothing is contained in this agreement stating how much should be sold by them. Indeed this agreement leaves the door wide open for them to exit should they wish to do so! As we have been saying for some time now, the Central Banks will complete their scheduled sales well ahead of the end of the Agreement. Well-respected banks are now confirming this in their reports too, we are happy to say.

Meanwhile we will have to watch the market place to see what they do, to hear their policy.

Randgold Resources - Missing Shares

After an audit of shareholders, Randgold Resources said that it could trace only 4 million of the 'missing' shares. Now it appears that even these are 'gone'. Randgold Resources has announced that 'missing' shares worth $66 million in itself, once held by parent, Randgold & Exploration (R&E) passed through markets just days ago. Randgold Resources was informed by Société Générale SA (SocGen) on January 20 that SocGen had 'acquired' 4 million Randgold Resources shares on January 19. Based on available information', as Randgold Resources puts it, it is believed that these shares 'were formerly owned by a wholly owned subsidiary of R&E and have since been sold by' SocGen. Mark Bristow, CEO of Randgold Resources, says that according to his company's records, the 4 million shares concerned represented R&E's 'only identifiable remaining holding in Randgold Resources'.

Randgold Resources appears justifiably delighted that 'their sale terminates the last link between the two companies and underlines Randgold Resources' status as a fully independent business with a broad shareholder base. Randgold may now regain its former standing in the market place.

Portfolio:

Gold Forecaster subscribers were alerted to a new Buy order this week and booked profits on IGMI for a quick 180% gain!

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Julian  D. W. Phillips

Author: Julian D. W. Phillips

Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster

Julian D. W. Phillips

"Global Watch: The Gold Forecaster" covers the global gold market. It specializes in Central Bank Sales and details, the Indian Bullion market [supported by a leading Indian Bullion professional], the South African markets [+ Gold shares shares] plus the currencies of gold producers [ Euro, U.S. $, Yen, C$, A$, and the South African Rand]. Its aim is to synthesise all the influential gold price factors across the globe, so as to truly understand the global reasons behind the gold price.
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