Charts and Commentary

By: Marty Chenard | Sat, Mar 25, 2006
Print Email

As an investor, you know that, as the VIX trends down, the market moves up ... so its trend is very important.

The VIX (Volatility Index) has made historic lows ... but, what will it do in the future?

Will it remain low, or start a new, longer term trend up? A new longer term trend up would correlate with the inverted yield curve, suggesting that there is a good probability of an up coming recession.

Some weeks ago, I did a research project on the VIX with a multitude of trending tools.

One interesting outcome, was the following chart below.

What it shows, is that the VIX has been following a concentric circle pattern over the past few years. The chart has 3 rings ... the bottom two are the resistance bands for the VIX.

The lowest, green band has been hit 5 times during this period, and each time, the VIX immediately went back up and the market down.

The "long term" concentric circle cycle has hit the bottom ... and the bottom resistance level will now start rising as we progress into the year. In 2007, the bottom side resistance will accelerate to the upside and put more downside pressure on the market. This concentric pattern would fit with the increasing chances of a recession as depicted by the yield curve.

While this model is not meant for short term trading purposes, it does gives us a look into what the longer term picture of what the market might look like for those who plan further into the future.

Please Note: We do not issue Buy or Sell timing recommendations on these Free daily update pages. I hope you understand, that in fairness, our Buy/Sell recommendations and advanced market Models are only available to our paid subscribers on a password required basis. Membership information.

Do you have a friend or fellow investor that you think would appreciate receiving a link to the above Charts and Analysis today? If so, simply click on the following link to easily and quickly forward an email link. Send this Page To a Friend Link

 


 

Marty Chenard

Author: Marty Chenard

Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

Marty Chenard is an Advanced Stock Market Technical Analyst that has developed his own proprietary analytical tools and stock market models. As a result, he was out of the market two weeks before the 1987 Crash in the most recent Bear Market he faxed his Members in March 2000 telling them all to SELL. He is an advanced technical analyst and not an investment advisor, nor a securities broker.

StockTiming.com is dedicated to Stock Market Investors who want the best information on stock charts, stock market trends, stock market timing and technical analysis.

Be My Guest and Take Advantage of Our Free Membership ... Get a Free Membership to StockTiming.com ... Youll receive important daily messages before the market opens and direct links to todays important web pages. Information and messages that are often not posted on our website. There is no obligation or expectation on our part ... it is just our way of proving our accuracy and timing expertise to you. Please click here for your Free Membership.

Copyright © 2006-2014 Marty Chenard

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/