Excerpts From - "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"

By: Julian D. W. Phillips | Sat, Apr 1, 2006
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HIGHLIGHTS in "Gold Forecaster - Global Watch"
Silver - COT, Gold : Silver Ratio EDR.V, SSRI, PAAS, SIL, SLW / Platinum.
SHARES: HUI, XAU, NEM, FCX, NG, VGZ, GSS, GOLD, LIHRY, MMRSF, GOCM, GPXM, WEX.V, Penoles, Eland Platinum, Anglo Platinum, Portfolio

1-2. Market Forecasts / Short-term forecasts across the Board!
2-3. Comex Update
3-12. Central Bank gold Sales in 2006 / Central Bank purchases/European Central Bank Sales/ World Gold Council / De-Hedging/China /Zimbabwe/ The Oil crisis / The U.S. economy and the $ / Gold: Oil Ratio / Dow Jones / Technical Analysis of the Gold Price: Long / Gold price drivers 2006 / Short term in the U.S. $ / Treasury Notes / CRB Index
12 - 31. International Gold Markets / Silver / Gold vs. Silver / Gold:Silver Ratio / Platinum / Silver & Gold Shares

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Central Bank Gold Agreement - Sales in 2006

Note: The disparity between the Remaining Balance and the Total remaining is due to the full very recent figures of sales not yet being disclosed fully.

Latest sales under the C.B.G.A

In the week ending the 24th March 2006 three Central Bank Gold agreement signatories sold approximately 6 tonnes of gold again, a repeat of last week. These relatively small sales underpin our belief that it is the lack of selling volume that is helping to drive the gold price skyward at the moment. It is difficult to state accurately just what the "Official" policies of the Central Bank Gold Agreement are now, because of their lack of transparency on the day-to-day picture. However, the E.C.B. sales and statements are fascinating [see below] and give us room to speculate a little.

The drop from the large amounts of weekly selling at the end of last year beginning of this continues from as little as zero to the present level of 6 tonnes, but from three signatories now. One therefore has to speculate one of two probabilities.

There is a carefully orchestrated programme of sales designed to spread across the whole C.B.G.A. year, with a little leeway to attempt to sell the "spikes".

The sales of gold by the signatories are quickly running down.

Clearly the announcements from the E.C.B. and Germany have to leave any remaining sellers feeling awfully alone as the price roars up. At two tonnes each of the three sellers, this amount is hardly worth the bother?

European Central Bank Sales

The European Central Bank said it has sold 57 tons of gold as part of the 2004 central bank gold sales agreement. B ut it said it does not plan any further gold sales in the next six months. Last year it sold 47 tonnes in all. It also sold these earlier in the year. Last year"s sales were just before the end of that first year. They have announced that it is not the E.C.B.' intention to sell more gold for the second year of the agreement, starting on 27 September 2005 and ending on 26 September 2006.

42-16219669 - Elevated view of a stack of gold barsWe cannot help but feel that there is more to this than meets the eye. The next few weeks could see as low if not lower sales than we are seeing now. If so we get the impression that there is not the willingness on the part of the signatories to sell that much more. But rather than being premature, let"s wait those few weeks.

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Julian  D. W. Phillips

Author: Julian D. W. Phillips

Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold Forecaster

Julian D. W. Phillips

"Global Watch: The Gold Forecaster" covers the global gold market. It specializes in Central Bank Sales and details, the Indian Bullion market [supported by a leading Indian Bullion professional], the South African markets [+ Gold shares shares] plus the currencies of gold producers [ Euro, U.S. $, Yen, C$, A$, and the South African Rand]. Its aim is to synthesise all the influential gold price factors across the globe, so as to truly understand the global reasons behind the gold price.

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